Best and Worst of 2008 for the Indian Stock Markets.

Nothing much fascinating this year for the Indian Stock Markets. In the third week of the year market saw a night mare. Except that we saw many stocks reaching their lifetime high in Jan first and second week. Third week onwards investors started loosing their money as there we two consecutive lower circuits on 21 and 22 on Indian Markets.

Since the peek of some 21K markets fell at 7800 odd and now are at 9K levels. It lost its shine as it looses 60% in not even a year.

Dalal Street turned into Halal Street.

I doubt if any one booked their full profits.

This year we saw both the phases of the stock markets – Bull Market (for 15 days odd) and rest of the year bear phase.

Just don’t forget – “Every thing which has gone up has to come down again”

Best of 2008	Worst of 2008
Many stocks making their life time highs.	Stocks seen making their 52 Week Lows.
Sensex also reached at a crucial level of 21K mark.	Sensex and Nifty have now touched their Oct 2005 lows.
N. Deal was passed.	Fight among govt. for N.Deal. BJP was against and Congress was for it.
Ranbaxy deal	Satyam and Maytas deal called off.
Tata JLR deal	Slump in GDP numbers from 9.1 to 6.5
SunPharma Deal	Inflation peeked at 12% odd.
Inflation started cooling since Nov.	Crude touched all time high of 147.27 $ a barrel.
Crude is now at 4 years low	Worst IIP data were seen.
Few co. posted good results despite of recession in world economy.	Terror attack on Mumbai.
Brack Obama became USA’s youngest President.	Terror attack on various other cities too in India.

There are many more things, but these are the once which I think are of immense importance.

Sectors which Outperformed.

I can say none of them all are in red.

The worst hit sectors.

Reality / Infrastructure.

Metals.

Auto.

Airline.

Stocks which declared good dividend.

Disa India declared 2000% dividend on a face value of Rs. 10

Colgate Palmolive declared 900% on a face value of Re. 1

Best Performing Mutual Funds of the year - Download File

People staying in Mumbai if you want to invest in Mutual Funds pls do contact here.

Happy New Year 2009.

Happy Investing!

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Market outlook and intraday tips for 31st Dec.

US markets have ended higher after the news came out that FED is buying out mortgage backed securities.

Europe ended a higher note.

Indian markets will have a gap up opening.

The support for the Sensex is 9495 and the resistance to the up move is at 9875-9990

Nifty: (2980) the support for the Nifty is at 2900 and the resistance to the up move is at 3035

If we open too higher we will face a stiff resistance above 10115.

If we have a huge gap up be prepared to slowly give up all its gains.

Day Trading Ideas

Satyam

Buy above 164 for targets of 169 and 174

Sell below 149 for targets of 146 and 143

Sesa Goa

Buy above 87 for targets of 88.90 and 90.15

Sell below 83 for targets of 81.50 and 80.10

RNRL

Buy above 58.50 for targets of 59.20 and 60.25

Sell below 54.25 for targets of 52.25 and 51.20

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Happy New Year in Advance.

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Fews stocks which are a value buy - Part 2

LIC Housing - Targeting gross NPA of 1.5% for FY09 and disbursement growth of 40%.

Currently trading at 0.8 times of its book value. Attractively valued at 2.8x and 2.2x of FY09E and FY10E EPS. Dividend yield of around 5% makes it quite attractive bet providing consistent performance.

Indian Hotels - Diversified portfolio of rooms spread across India and abroad. At current market price of Rs 46, the stock trades at 6.5x and 5.0x of its FY09E and FY10E earnings, respectively.

Attractive valuations keeping in mind its future expansion of properties and stability in ARRs and occupancy rates in the cities like Delhi & Mumbai. Certain major events like the Commonwealth Games planned in Delhi in 2010 would require addition to the inventory of rooms which would again help the company having good exposure in the capital.

The current market capitalization of less than Rs 3,500 crore is at a steep discount to the 86 hotel properties it owns and operates across India and abroad. In addition, it is developing various new hotel properties in different locations in India, South Africa, Dubai and Morocco.

Chennai Petro - Good track record of paying hefty dividends for past few years. Pure refining player with no marketing losses unlike IOC, BPCL and HPCL. Attractive dividend yield – around 14% on FY08 annualized dividend of 170%.

Currently trading at half of its book value. Capacity expansion by 1 mn tpa of Manali refinery to provide further boost to the business. Available at just 1.5x FY10E EPS.

Ambuja Cement - Strong balance sheet and low financial leverage with debt to equity ratio of 0.10. Attractive dividend yield of around 5% in the current calendar year.

Stock can get further fillip as Holcim is likely to further increase its stake in the company. Higher key return ratios like ROCE compared to peers. Cement company with the best operating parameters. Currently trading at 1.8 times of its book value.

Sterlite Industry - At the current price of Hindustan Zinc, the 64.9% stake of Sterlite Industries in Hindustan Zinc is valued at around Rs 9,000 crore.

Cash on book around Rs 9,900 crore after deducting debt. Current market capitalisation of Rs 15,400 crore is less than the sum of its stake value in Hindustan Zinc and cash on book. Current market capitalisation is just 1.7 times of its FY08 operating cash flows. The values that are expected to be realised from the energy business, zinc and aluminium expansion plans will certainly add much more value.

Last but certainly not the least, their existing business of aluminium and copper is not being valued at all by the market. Deeply undervalued stock of a very well established and diversified non ferrous metals player.

Praj Ind - It is a leading equipment manufacturer of ethanol and other chemicals.

Very strong order book, good technology platform and strong alliances in the US and other markets makes this company a very strong bet in the non-conventional energy space.- ET

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Market outlook and intraday tips for 30th Dec.

US and European markets ended marginally lower.

Europe ended a higher note.

Asia is boned to open flat to positive.

We may see a flat opening.

NIFTY is strong above 2932.

Crude crosses 40 $ mark on Middle East tension.

The support for the Sensex is 8564 and the resistance to the up move is at 9690

Nifty: (2857) the support for the Nifty is at 2654 and the resistance to the up move is at 2960

If we open higher 100 points on NIFTY we are bonded to give up all gain in the later session. If we open flat and are able to sustain 2932 and above we will see a pull back in the later session.

Day Trading ideas.

IDFC

Buy above 67.25 for targets of 68.75 and 71.25

Sell below 63.50 for targets of 61.20 and 60.10

Satyam Computers.

Buy above 152 for targets of 156 and 161

Sell below 142 for targets of 138 and 135

SAIL

Buy above 79.75 for targets of 81.25 and 83.50

Sell below 74.20 for targets of 72.10 and 70.50

Hindalco

Buy above 50.10 for targets of 51.90 and 53.10

Sell below 48.20 for targets of 47.25 and 46.10

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Fews stocks which are a value buy.

Noida Toll Bridge - The traffic on the flyway is expected to increase at a healthy rate, mainly due to the ongoing residential and commercial development in Noida and Greater Noida.

Land bank on the either sides of the bridge is an additional asset. The company expects further 40% growth in its average daily traffic over next two years due to Commonwealth games to be held in Delhi NCR in 2010.


State Bank of India - Investors looking for a large-cap stock which will add value to their portfolio can consider accumulating the State Bank of India stock in declines.

Beaten down valuations, strong financials in an extremely challenging macro environment, with sustainable growth in advances, make the bank stock attractive. Though the bank trades at a premium to all public sector banks, this appears justified given the size of its balance-sheet and the huge market share, despite which it has delivered better financial performance than its peers.

Market share for the bank has improved in recent quarters.


NTPC - With its existing operations, ongoing expansion plans and high profitability, NTPC is favourably placed in the power generation space.

Further, the shortage in power supply, which is expected to remain in the medium to long term, will keep the capacity utilization of power plants at a high level.


Infosys - The best known IT stock from India.

Well reputed as a quality solution provider, has very long established relationships with a number of leading banks and corporates in the US and other places, impeccable record of transparency and good corporate governance and strong balance sheet are some of the features why we feel Infosys is a must in every investor’s portfolio.


LNT - India’s infrastructure story is best captured by L&T.

Strong management, healthy order book position, diversification across product categories and geographies are some of the strong points of this bellwether engineering company.


BHEL - Largest power component manufacturer in India. Strong order backlog, capacity expansion to meet demand and robust capex lined up for power projects augur well for the company's earnings growth.


Bank Of India - Bank of India has a strong balance sheet growth, stable margins and good quality assets.

The reduction in NPAs, increased book value and improvement in return on assets are indicators of the bank’s superior performance across parameters.


Bajaj Hindustan - The largest manufacturer of sugar in India. Sugar cycle seems to be turning around making this company, which has used the two year downturn to substantially increase its capacity, an extremely attractive buy.

By-product of ethanol and co generation of power are other strong points of this company. - ET

More to be continued.....

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Recession effect on TATA Motors.

TATA motors is closing it Pune factory for 3 days ( From this Monday). This closure is basically just for commercial vehicle segment. Passenger car segment will continue its production normally.
This step is taken because of slump in demand for these vehicles.

More over sales of passenger cars will see a further decline in comming months. It is yet to feel the pinch of recession.

More bad news is expected to come from this sector as well as this company.

This year proved to be a very unlucky one for TATA group as first they lost their Singur plant and later last month they faced a huge damage due to terror attack on Taj Hotel in Mumbai.

Hope the comming year brings cheer for TATA Group.
I am bullish on TATA Motors for long term view.
Happy Investing.

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Market outlook and intraday tips for 29th Dec.

US and European markets are closed on account of Christmas.

Asia is boned to open flat to positive.

We may see a flat opening.

NIFTY is bullish above 2945 and will find difficult to cross 3015.

The support for the Sensex is 8564 and the resistance to the up move is at 9690.

Nifty: (2857) the support for the Nifty is at 2654 and the resistance to the up move is at 2960.

Day Trading ideas.

DLF
Buy above 284 for targets of 294 and 302

Sell below 265 for targets of 258 and 251

Unitech

Buy above 36.80 for targets of 38.10 and 39.25

Sell below 34.75 for targets of 33.50 and 32.10

Aban Offshores.

Buy above 684 for targets of 696 and 708

Sell below 660 for targets of 650 and 641

IFCI
Buy above 20.15 for targets of 20.60 and 21.50

Sell below 18.90 for targets of 18.10 and 17.50

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Weekly news letter and stocks to look out for.

This week we saw markets crashing down drastically. Sensex and NIFTY both are down over 7%.

Inflation is cooling down. Current inflation is at 6.61 compared to 6.84 last week.

See the life as crude is below 35$.

Satyam is banned by World Bank for 8 years. (Don’t carry any long position is this scrip)

FII’s activity is now negligible.

We will see some DII’s buying stocks.

More over companies are buying their own stock from the market so as to increase the promoter’s holdings. The latest company to do so was GMR Infra.

Stocks to look out in this week.

Satyam Computers. – Any thing can happen now.

Unitech. – My favorite to trade. Good movements. Highly volatile.

Axis Bank.- Again the same story , expect rate cut.

UCO Bank.- Technically strong stock.

Reliance Ind. – Can bounce back from any levels from now.

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NIFTY Weekly Technicals

Markets give up gains post Christmas.

US is closed for next few days. Asian markets may cherish this week.

I see markets may remain in upward trend this week.

The supports on the way down are at 2950 and resistances on the way up are at 3113-3168.

Above 3115 we can see 3200 and 3270.

Simple Moving Averages –

5 D	8 D	13 D	20 D	39 D	50 D	200 D
2972	2990	2958	2873	2852	2908	4111

At present we lie between 39 days SMA. Only if we cross 50 day SMA we heades towards 3050.

Fibonacci price projections-

	0%	61.8%	100%	161.8%	261.8%
Up	2503	2707	2833	3037	3367
Dn	2833	2629	2503	2299	1969

Chart –

Chart shows bearish movements from past couple of days.

Taking position for long term is now advisable.

Monday we can see a gap up opening.

If people say 6000 is the bottom (Sensex) we should have atlest corrected till 7850 on Sensex till now.

Other Indicators –

- Volume (last/ 5 day average): 0 / 0

- 5 day RSI: 31 - no indication.

- 14 day RSI: 46 - no indication.

- Williams % R(14): 38 (summation factor 100)

- Average Directional Index ADX: 16

- Average True Range ATR: 5 days - 99 .....14 days - 122

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Birla Sun Life Mutual Fund adds insurance feature to its scheme.

Birla Sun Life Mutual Fund has added the facility of insurance in its Birla Sun Life Tax Relief 96 scheme. The facility would provide investors insurance upto Rs.10 lakhs till the age of 55 years against nine critical diseases. Birla Sun Life Tax Relief is an open ended equity linked scheme; the dividend option under the scheme was launched in 1996 while the growth option under the same scheme was launched in 2008. The objective of the scheme is to provide growth of capital along with Income Tax exemption benefits to investors. The scheme is managed by Mr. Ajay Garg and it is benchmarked against BSE 200. - MutualFundIndia

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BHEL bags Rs 50.40 bn contract from Jindal Power

Bharat Heavy Electricals (BHEL) has secured a Rs 50.40 billion contract from Jindal Power for setting up 2,400 mw power plant in Chhattisgarh, reports Business Standard.

Under terms of the contract, BHEL would install four units of 600 mw each in O P Jindal super thermal power plant at Raigarh in Chhattisgarh.

BHEL`s scope of work in the contract includes designs, engineering, manufacture, supply and erection of boilers, turbines, generators and associated auxilliary.

Shares of BHEL closed down Rs 52.2, or 3.86%, at Rs 1,300.15. The total volume of shares traded at the BSE was 347,340 (Friday). - MyIRIS

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Tata gets additional land from Uttarakhand govt for Nano

India`s largest automobile company, Tata Motors has been allooted 45 acres of extra land at its Pantnagar facility from the Uttarakhand government for Nano project, reports Business Standard.
The previous Congress government, had given Tata Motors, 955 acres of land for its Ace truck plant at Pantnagar, out of a promised total 1,000 acres, according to State Chief Secretary, I K Pandey.
This land allotment is likely to help the company in launching the world`s cheapest car priced at Rs 100,000.
The company moved the mother plant to Sanand in Gujarat from Singur, on account of opposition from Trinamool Congress over land acquisition.
It had originally planned to pump in Rs 15 billion at Singur but the investment was increased to Rs 20 billion, when it shifted to Sanand.
Originally, Nano was to be commercially launched around Durga Puja this year but postponed to the last quarter of this fiscal year. The company is planning Nano production, from its various locations, including Pune and Pantnagar untill the mother plant at Sanand is ready.
Shares of the company declined Rs 4.05, or 2.54%, to settle at Rs 155.60. The total volume of shares traded was 499,254.00 at the BSE (Friday). - MyIRIS

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Markets may recover from next week

Technical analyst, Vishwas Agarwal, while commenting on the market said, ``From Monday or Tuesday onwards, market will start recovering for second and last round of current upmove. As this market will make next stop before January 14 and from there onwards, corporate results will start which are expected to be weak.``

``We have only around 10 working days to make money and exit from weak stock. 2,876 is the basic support and 2,976 is important to cross for a strong upmove. Overall market view is trade with stoploss only with no major big target for any upside in Nifty or any stock,`` added Agarwal. - MyIRIS

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Will markets rally till New Year?

We never needed it more: a Santa Claus rally. The big question is whether it will happen in 2008? Much like the Wall Street, history
Santa and stocks
says Indian stock markets tend to rally from Christmas Eve to the New Year's Day (or the first trading day of the New Year).

FIIs or mutual funds
or big investors may not be bullish but if Santa has his way, investors will have something nice to finish the year, which saw Sensex lose over 50% of its value.

If investors want some hope, they can take heart from the fact that from 2000 onwards the sensex has never given negative returns for this period, which falls within the Yuletide.

Santa Claus rallies are said to happen as people tend to consume more, invest for tax breaks and more importantly, pessimists stay on vacation during this week, say experts.

For the rally to happen in 2008, the start seems to be a little off the track with Sensex losing 240 point on Friday. But people haven't lost hope.

"An encore of 2003, 2004 or even 2006 could see Sensex gain anything between 3% and 6%. The sentiment not withstanding, we never know what markets might throw at us," an institutional head at a local brokerage said.

A rally at this point could be a possibility because downsides from slowdown and lesser profits in third quarter are already there in the prices to a certain extent, he said.

For a 6-7 day window that exists between Christmas Eve and the first trading of the New Year, Santa has made decent stops at the Indian stock markets. - ET

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A video on real situation in US.

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Market outlook and intraday tips for 26th Dec.

US ended a positive note a day before Christmas Eve.

Europe ended marginally lower.

Japan has opened flat.

I expect Indian markets to open flat.

Auto Industry all over the world is facing heat after sales of cars decline badly in Japan first time after 1967.

The sectors which have performed worst this year are Real Estate, Banking and Auto, according to me. I think Auto Ind. May face more heat ahead.

The support for the Sensex is 9531-9328 and the resistance to the up move is at 9690

Nifty: (2917) the support for the Nifty is at 2876 and the resistance to the up move is at 2960

Intraday Ideas.

Unitech

Buy above 38.40 for targets of 40.60 and 43.60

Sell below 35.70 for targets of 33.25 and 31.10

DLF

Buy above 293.90 for targets of 298 and 304

Sell below 285.50 for targets of 280 and 276

Sterlite Ind.

Buy above 258 for targets of 261 and 265

Sell below 242 for targets of 238 and 235

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