World's richest economies to grow this year

The world's richest economies will grow again before year-end as the choke-hold of the worst recession in generations gradually eases,but Reuters polls of economists show widespread doubt about the recovery's strength.

Surveys of more than 150 analysts across the Group of Seven industrialized nations showed upgrades to near-term growth forecasts for most countries, although expectations for 2010 remain sluggish and barely changed over the past month.

The Reuters poll results will certainly provide comfort to those who have made aggressive bets on an economic recovery beginning this year. But forecasts for a sharp rebound, or what is often called a V-shaped recovery, are few and far between.

"Signs from consumers suggest a key component of economic recovery is not prepared to carry its weight," noted Robert DiClemente, chief U.S. economist at Citi in New York.

"Financial market participants and policymakers will need to pay close attention to the path of consumer spending as this slower pace of inventory unwinding boosts GDP."

So far it appears gross domestic product in developed economies has had a boost from a searing pace of inventory depletion running its course, leaving companies with no choice but to ramp up production in order to meet even feeble demand.

Yet prospects for the G7 remain dim compared with most Asian economies, which are set for a sharp rebound in 2010, according to the latest Reuters poll of more than 100 economists across the region, also published Wednesday.

Global economic growth is set to mark a 1.5 percent decline this year, based on forecasts gathered from across the G7, followed by a fairly strong pickup to 2.5 percent in 2010 driven by emerging economies.

The range of GDP forecasts provided for G7 economies was wide, although there has been some narrowing, coinciding with a powerful stock market rally this year that has major indexes up 30 percent since March, some more than half.

Source : Economic Times

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U.N. agency - World economy may lose 51 million jobs

Up to 51 million jobs worldwide could disappear by the end of this year as a result of the economic slowdown that has turned into a global employment crisis, a United Nations agency said on Wednesday.

The International Labour Organisation (ILO) said that under its most optimistic scenario, this year would finish with 18 million more unemployed people than at the end of 2007, with a global unemployment rate of 6.1.

More realistically, it said 30 million more people could lose their jobs if financial turmoil persists through 2009, pushing up the world's unemployment to 6.5 percent, compared to 6.0 percent in 2008 and 5.7 percent in 2007.

In the worst-case economic scenario, the Global Employment Trends report said 51 million more jobs could be lost by the end of this year, creating a 7.1 percent global unemployment rate.

"If the recession deepens in 2009, as many forecasters expect, the global jobs crisis will worsen sharply," it said. "We can expect that for many of those who manage to keep a job, earnings and other conditions of employment will deteriorate."

Caterpillar, Sprint, Philips, Texas Instruments and ING are among the companies that have cut thousands of jobs in response to the financial crisis and economic downturn that has spread around the world.

The ILO's previous employment estimate, released in October, was that 20 million jobs would disappear by the end of 2009 as a result of the financial crisis.

INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS

Developing countries will suffer most from additional job losses, according to the ILO, whose governing structure includes governments, employers and workers groups.

"Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia stand out as regions with extremely harsh labour market conditions and with the highest shares of working poor of all regions," the report said.

According to ILO estimates, North Africa and the Middle East had the highest unemployment rate at the end of 2008, at 10.3 percent and 9.4 percent respectively.

Central and southeastern Europe and the former Soviet states ended last year with a jobless rate of 8.8 percent, sub-Saharan Africa's was 7.9 percent and Latin America's was 7.3 percent. East Asia fared best of the world's regions at 3.8 percent.

Most job creation in 2008 came from South Asia, Southeast Asia, and East Asia, while developed economies and the European Union lost some 900,000 jobs on a net basis.

The ILO said that government works projects, like those recently announced in Argentina, could help create and sustain jobs until the private sector starts to rebound.

Construction and rehabilitation of public infrastructure such as roads, bridges, schools, hospitals and public buildings could be especially helpful in poorer countries with high levels of joblessness, the report found.

"While major capital-intensive new infrastructure projects take time to translate into increased employment, labour-based approaches can generate jobs and much-needed infrastructure quite quickly," it said, also noting the World Bank has launched an infrastructure crisis facility that could support this work.

The ILO also urged governments to extend unemployment and health insurance programmes to help people endure the crisis. - Reuters

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A video on real situation in US.

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Japan's GDP is down 1.8% in July - September

Japan the worlds second fastest growing economy went officially in recession a month back. But see these bad GDP figures.
I think India is performing much better than Japan.
US is in official recession. Worlds largesr growing economy.
Japan is also in recession.
Germany which is the third fastest growing economy is also in recession.

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ICO - Global coffee exports slip by 2.9%

Global coffee exports have declined by 2.9% to 95.11 million bags during the 2007-08 crop year, reports agency sources.

According to the International Coffee Organization (ICO), in 2006-07, global coffee exports stood at 97.96 million bags. During 2007-08 (the coffee year runs from November to October), world arabica and robusta exports totaled 62.5 million bags and 32.6 million bags, respectively.

India, which is at the fourth position in the list of coffee-exporting countries, shipped 1.7 million bags of robusta and 740,000 bags of other milds during November-October 2007-08, ICO data showed.

The world`s largest exporter, Brazil, witnessed a 4.17% fall at 24.54 million bags, Tanzania by 7.82% at 742,608 bags and Cameroon by 23.13% at 566,383 bags, it said.

For the 2008-09 crop year, the ICO has projected 11% increase in global coffee production at 131 million bags as compared with 118.2 million bags in a year-ago period. Meanwhile, the coffee demand in 2008 is estimated to be 128 million bags, it said, adding that consumption levels in traditional markets are likely to be maintained despite the current financial crisis. - MyIRIS

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"Jim O'Neill an economist of Goldman Sachs say that BRIC shoppers can save the world" on Bloomberg.

With economies from the U.S. to Japan in recession , the 2.8 billion people in Brazil, Russia, India and China may provide the consumer demand needed to counter the slump.

I totally agree as China got a Bailout package of 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion).

India's Inflation is cooling.

These factors can lead to more consumer spendings.

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What is the meaning of BRIC Nations?

BRIC stands for Brazil , Russia , India and China.

These nations are also called as the emerging economies in the world. These countries are supose to be the future superpower.

The markets in these countries are emerging once.

Almost 2/3 of the worlds population thrives here. Here the population is huge and ROI's is faster.

Between 2000 - 2005 BRIC contributed roughy 28% of the Global growth.

Just imagine the power of BRIC nations.

I will write  full report on BRIC very soon. I am working on it.

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PM: global institutions must be representative

India will emerge stronger from the global economic crisis and global institutions must be made more representative of developing nations, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said on Friday.

In speech to a conference, Singh said the world had become more interdependent and the voice of developing nations must be heard in the high councils of global decision-making.

"Global problems require global solutions. This is the most important lesson of the past century for the present century," Singh said.

"But global institutions of governance must be made more inclusive and representative," he said, according to a text of the speech.

Singh took part in a summit in Washington last weekend with leaders of the Group of 20 nations to discuss how to tackle the crisis which has shaken financial markets worldwide, frozen credit markets and pushed some major economies into recession.

He said the G20 meeting was the first time developing nations' voices had been heard with respect in a global forum and said there was agreement that recourse to protectionism was no remedy.

Indian authorities are struggling to shore up growth against the impact of the global financial crisis and have taken a host of steps including sharp rate cuts to fend off damage to the broader economy.

Singh said the world was in a deep crisis but despite an adverse international environment India had the capacity to sustain a growth rate of about 8 percent.

"We will, through the use of fiscal policies, through the use of monetary policies, through the use of public investment, ensure that the shortage of demand coming as it is from the global slowdown is neutralised to the maximum possible extent," he said.

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World is likely headed for a deep recession. - Krugman.

US Economist Paul Krugman , the Nobal prize winner for economics this year said on Monday, that the World is likely headed for a deep recession despite the European plan to bailout banks.
He warned that the crisis have already inflicted serious damage on the World economy.

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