Weekly news letter and stock tips for the week.

>> Sunday, November 30, 2008

Last week we saw markets going marginally up after good global cues.

It was one of the most volatile weeks on the bourses with benchmark indices gyrating sharply as profit booking alternated with short covering before the F&O expiry date.  While a big bailout package in which the US Government promised USD 326 billion to Citigroup helped the markets rebound, the buzz that Bank of America could be a potential bailout candidate spooked market participants.

Meanwhile, surprise steep rate cuts by China's (CRR by 108 basis points and interest rate reduced to 5.58% from 6.66%) during the mid week increased anticipation that other central banks too would follow the suit. Expectations of further cut in interest rates in India too gathered momentum after the Finance Minister announced that the monetary policy was now biased towards stimulating growth and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) was likely to lower rates further as inflation cooled.

However, the terror attack in the Indian financial capital led to the postponement of derivatives expiry by a day as the markets remained shut. This led to greater volatility on the last trading day of the week. Nevertheless, the Indian markets still managed to close above the 9000 points mark.

The stocks that were in the limelight this week included Kingfisher Airlines and  IVRCL Infra in the mid-cap space while in the large-cap segment, Reliance stocks demonstrated considerable weakness.

The global slowdown and its imact on the Indian economy is no longer breaking news. There is a discernible slowdown being witnessed across the Indian economy. This is also reflected in the GDP data released for second quarter of 2008-09 wherein our economy grew at 7.6% as against 9.3% a year-ago and 7.9% in the previous quarter.

Slackening demand and increased inventories, liquidity crunch on account of reduced availability and rising cost of funds have been taking its toll on the performance of Indian Inc. With major manufacturing companies already announcing production cuts and temporary plant shutdowns, its adverse impact will be visible in the coming quarters.

There is some pessimism again building up that the massive bailout could worsen rather than improve the ongoing crisis. The depreciating rupee which hit a record low of 50.60 against the US dollar too does not provide near-term comfort.

For now, though there are some positives like cooling off of the inflation rate and expectations of a further rate cut, the weighing scale tilt towards the negative. Nevertheless, the next sell-off in the financial markets could provide a decent buying opportunity for investors with a long term view, although utmost caution is advised for the time being.

Stocks to look into this week.

ICICI Bank and SBI - Banking may soon see a Rate cut advantage to move up as Inflation is cooling.

India Hotels Ltd - The Mumbai terror attack one you cant afford to forget destroyed the Taj Heritage Hotels in South Mumbai we may see a sell of in this scrip.

Unitech - Unitech is still not a good buy can easily go below 20 levels. Dont buy levels to watch are 17.50 - 19.25 - 21.65 - 23.85 - 25.90 - 28.30 (Levels for whole month of December ) It can move between 17.50 to 28.30 levels.

Hindalco - Technicaly speaking this stock has ability to climbe up 10- 12 % from CMP in the week.

Happy Investing .

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Weekly NIFTY technicals - 1st - 5th Dec.

Last week as predicted did well. My target of 2890 is still not come. Projected to come this week.

Last week we saw a tragic incident of the Mumbai terror atack which was shocking.

Some gap up opening is expected on Monday as US closed positive.
Sensex is showing much more strength than NIFTY.

Simple Moving Averages -

5 D

8 D

13 D

20 D

39 D

50 D

200 D

2713

2679

2768

2830

3055

3281

4317



I see a stiff resistance at 2950 now as its between 20D - 39D moving averages.
A short covering can come between 2450 - 2620.

VIX is at 56.21 this week compared to 61 last week.
I am bullish till Wednesday.
Selling preasure can come between 2850 -3000 points.

Chartem' Up -



Other Indicators - 
- Volume (last/ 5 day average): 0 / 0 
- 5 day RSI: 54 - no indication.
- 14 day RSI: 43 - no indication.
- Williams % R(14): 38 (summation factor 100)
- Average Directional Index ADX: 30
- Average True Range ATR: 5 days - 134 .....14 days - 164


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Stocks to remain upbeat next week; Nifty resistance seen at 2900

>> Saturday, November 29, 2008

A resilient Mumbai got back to its feet Friday after terrorist attacks tried to handicap India's financial hub. Shrugging off the panic situation that gripped the city, the Indian bourses put up a good show and analysts feel the upmove will continue in the forthcoming week as well. 


"It is heartening to see the market closing above 2650 levels despite all the negativity around. I expect the pullback rally to continue with resistance pegged around 2900-3000 on the Nifty and around 9500 levels on the Sensex. Selective buying in specific sectors like power is advised," said Hitesh Sheth, head-technical research at Prabhudas Lilladher. 

Despite a modest slowdown, India's economic performance in the September quarter was impressive, as its growth rate surprised on the upside at a time when most economies around the world are reporting shockingly weak GDP numbers. This gave further impetus to market sentiment Friday. 

However, Moody's Economy.com feels that the solid growth pace in the September quarter does not mean that India is immune from the global downturn. 

"As the world has become increasingly interconnected, no economy can escape from this severe global financial tsunami. The recession in several major economies now foreshadows a tough time ahead for India. Prospects for the December quarter and much of 2009 are grim, and a sharp deceleration in India's GDP growth is expected in the final three months of this year," warns Sherman Chan, economist at Moody's Economy.com. 

Chan added that India's GDP growth for the next four quarters will certainly slip below the 7% mark and may even test the 6% mark around mid-2009. 

Meanwhile, global rating agency Standard & Poor's stated that attacks were an isolated case and that it does not expect any negative implications on India's macro economic activities or the government's fiscal position from the attacks. 

"The terrorist act will have limited impact on markets. And given that our GDP came in better than expected, markets are likely to be bullish in the coming week. Nifty has a strong support at 2600. Rollovers were also healthy with good build-up of long positions," said Ramesh Agarwal of Global One Advisory. 

On a provisional basis, the Nifty rollover of positions from November to December series stood at 64% while marketwide rollover stood at 71% on the current month's F&O expiry. 

In the cash market, Bombay Stock Exchange's Sensex ended at 8,915.21, up 1.99 per cent or 177.51 points from the previous week while National Stock Exchange's Nifty closed 61.65 points or 2.28 per cent at 2755.10. 

On the other hand, with inflation gradually easing, all eyes are on the Reserve Bank of India to cut rates in order to sustain demand. However, facing a large debt burden, it is difficult for the government to be as aggressive as they would like in boosting economic activity. Inflation edged lower to 8.84 percent for the week ended November 15 from 8.90 the previous week. 

Meanwhile, the world will be watching with great interest on the kind of sales figures in the US over the weekend. "If we see a growth of 3 per cent over last year same store sales, we could have a global stock market rally. However, if sales fall below 3 per cent, a visit on the October lows will be on the cards," said VK Sharma of Anagram Stock Broking. 

The day after the Thanksgiving holiday is commonly known as 'black Friday', not because of any grim association, but because it is the day that retailers usually move out of the red and into profitability for the year. The period between Thanksgiving and Christmas accounts for between 40% and 50% of annual retail sales in the US. 

Analysts are expecting one of the toughest holiday seasons in decades and Friday's sales figures will test the strength of consumer confidence. Many took the unusual step of opening yesterday on the Thanksgiving holiday in the hope of stimulating extra sales. - ET

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Few pictures of Terror attack in Mumbai - 44Hrs of Terror.

>> Friday, November 28, 2008






Hello people these are few pictures which I got a mail from my relative on the Terror attack in Mumbai.


The blood battel is still not out. Its been 44 hours now of terror!

People Join the cause and tell your friends about this.

*All credits go to the respective photographers who took risk of their lives to click them.

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GDP at 7.6 v/s 7.9 as Indian Economy expands at a slowest pace since 2004.


Indian GDP stands at 7.6% v/s 7.9% in last quater.

India’s economy grew at the slowest pace since 2004 last quarter, increasing pressure on the central bank to cut interest rates.

Asia’s third-largest economy expanded 7.6 percent in the three months to Sept. 30 from a year earlier, after a 7.9 percent gain in the previous quarter, the statistics office said in a statement in New Delhi today. The median forecast of 16 economists in a Bloomberg News survey was for 7.2 percent growth.

Governor Duvvuri Subbarao may have to deepen the rate cuts he started last month to support growth in India’s $1.2 trillion economy as the world sinks into recession. Reducing borrowing costs would also shore up investor confidence after terrorist attacks since Nov. 26 killed at least 121 people in Mumbai, the nation’s financial hub.-Blomberg

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Inflation rate drops to 8.84% on cheaper fuel, metals

 The annual Wholesale Price Index-based inflation rose 8.84 per cent for the week ended November 15, marginally down from the previous week’s yearly rise of 8.90 per cent. The latest WPI inflation rate was the lowest reading since May 17 and well below early August’s peak of 12.91 per cent.

The official WPI for ‘All Commodities’ for the latest reported week rose by 0.04 per cent to 235.1 points, up from 235 points for the previous week. The annual rate of inflation, calculated on point-to-point basis, stood at 3.35 per cent during the corresponding week of the previous year.

Fish-Marine cheaper

The Primary Articles Group rose 0.1 per cent as the index for ‘Food Articles’ group rose by 0.1 per cent due to higher prices of moong, rice and bajra (3 per cent each), ragi (2 per cent) and masur, maize and fruits and vegetables (1 per cent each). However, the prices of fish-marine (12 per cent) and gram and tea (2 per cent each) declined.

Soyabean dearer

The index for ‘Non-Food Articles’ group rose marginally due to higher prices of soyabean (11 per cent), gingelly seed and castor seed (2 per cent each) and linseed (1 per cent). However, the prices of raw rubber (4 per cent), cotton seed groundnut seed and raw cotton (2 per cent each) and raw silk (1 per cent) declined.

The fuel, power, light and lubricants group index remained unchanged at its previous week’s level of 353.3 points. The Manufactured Products group rose by 0.05 per cent as the index for the ‘Food Products’ group declined by 0.1 per cent due to lower prices of cotton seed oil (5 per cent), imported edible oil (4 per cent), rice bran oil (3 per cent) and gur (2 per cent).

However, the prices of bran (all kinds) (5 per cent), gingelly oil (4 per cent), sooji (rawa) (2 per cent) and salt and atta (1 per cent each) moved up. The index for the ‘Textiles’ group rose by 1.0 per cent due to higher prices of cotton yarn-cones and hessian and sacking bags (4 per cent each), texturised yarn (2 per cent) and hessian cloth and cotton yarn-hanks (1 per cent each). However, the prices of synthetic yarn (2 per cent) declined.

The index for ‘Rubber and Plastic Products’ group declined by 0.2 per cent due to lower prices of PVC fitting and accessories (12 per cent). The index for ‘Chemicals and Chemical Products’ group rose by 0.3 per cent due to higher prices of acetylene (70 per cent) and oxygen (8 per cent). However, the prices of vitamin liquids (4 per cent) declined.

The index for the ‘Base Metals Alloys and Metal Products’ group declined by 0.6 per cent due to lower prices of ferro silicon (24 per cent), steel ingots (plain carbon) (16 per cent), basic pig iron and foundry pig iron (7 per cent each), zinc (3 per cent), steel sheets, plates and strips (2 per cent) and ms bars and rounds (1 per cent). However, the prices of joist and rolls and other iron steel (3 per cent each) moved up. - TheHinduBusinessLine

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Investor sentiment may take a knock.

Wednesday’s terrorist attack that rocked the financial capital of the country could further dampen investor sentiment already shattered by the credit crisis, say analysts and marketmen.

However, most of them do not expect a sharp fall in key indices.

“There might be a knee-jerk reaction in the market when it opens”, said Mr Manish Sonthalia, Vice-President, Equity Strategy, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd.

Both Bombay Stock Exchange and National Stock Exchange were officially closed on Thursday following the terror attack.

“I don’t see a great impact tomorrow on markets,” said Mr U. K. Sinha, Chairman & Managing Director of UTI AMC. In the past also such developments had only a temporary impact on trading, he said.

Both BSE and NSE said that the expiry in futures and options, and settlement due on Thursday, were postponed to Friday.

The Singapore Nifty Index Futures opened a little lower than the previous close and ended lower by 64 points.

The terror attack as such is not going to impact the market but will have sentimental impact and foreigners may defer their investment plans, said Mr Dinesh Thakkar, CMD of Angel Broking Ltd.

Some analsyts feel that in the event of a market crash, domestic institutions such as LIC might come to the rescue, said the head of research at a broking firm.

On Tuesday, Sensex ended higher by 331.19 points at 9026.72.

Downgrade seen

As foreign tourists were held captive in top hotels, there might be a downgrade on the big and reputed names in the hotel industry, said Ms Anita Gandhi, Head of Institutional Business, Arihant Capital Markets Ltd.

The terror attack is bound to create a panic amongst the foreign investors which in turn could impact foreign direct and institutional investments.

The US traded shares of Indian companies were up on Wednesday. ICICI bank was up by 1.8 per cent, Infosys by 6 per cent, MTNL by 3.1 per cent and Wipro by 3.8 per cent.

Meanwhile, the SEBI board, scheduled to meet tomorrow, is expected to consider, among others, the exit route for regional stock exchanges and guidelines for separate exchanges for small and medium enterprises.

The equity, currency, bonds and money markets were officially closed on Thursday.

Source - TheHinduBusinessLine.

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Market outlook for 28th Nov.

US markets were closed yesterday.

Europe was up 2% on an average.
Asia has opned marginally lower.
If markets open today we may see a negative to flat opening.
Support for Nifty is at 2550 and resistance for upmove at 2910 and 3200

Day Trading Ideas.

SBI 
Buy above 1115 for targets of 1126 and 1135
Sell below 1098 for targets of 1085 and 1075

LNT
Buy above 757 for targets of 768 and 779
Sell below 742 for targets of 732 and 726

Unitech
Buy above 26.20 for targets of 27.30 and 28.55
Sell below 23.10 nfor targets of 22.50 and 21.90

TCS 
Buy above 530 for targets of 538 and 549
Sell below 515 for targets of 504 and 497

ONGC
Buy above 705 for targets of 715 and 722 
Sell below 697 for targets of 692 and 685

Also look out for 

Happy Trading / Investing.

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Stock Markets to be Shut today on account of Terror Attack in Mumbai.

>> Thursday, November 27, 2008

The worst evers terror attack on Indias Financial capital has led to the closure of Indian stock markets. This is the latest news comming at 8.00 am. 

Roleover is posponded.

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Indian market outlook and daytrading ideas for 27th Nov.

Shocking terror attact in Indias Financial Capital. Over 80 are Dead and 200 are injured (Sources).

We pray for all the Victims and Cops who lost their life in this incident.

All world markets are trading positive and I expect Indian markets to open positive.
US markets are up over 3% on an average.
Asia is trading green , more over China is up over 8%.
Inflation is to come out and poll expects Inflation to further cool down.
Support for Nifty is at 2550 and resistance for upmove at 2910 and 3200

Day Trading Ideas.

SBI 
Buy above 1115 for targets of 1126 and 1135
Sell below 1098 for targets of 1085 and 1075

LNT
Buy above 757 for targets of 768 and 779
Sell below 742 for targets of 732 and 726

Unitech
Buy above 26.20 for targets of 27.30 and 28.55
Sell below 23.10 nfor targets of 22.50 and 21.90

TCS 
Buy above 530 for targets of 538 and 549
Sell below 515 for targets of 504 and 497

ONGC
Buy above 705 for targets of 715 and 722 
Sell below 697 for targets of 692 and 685

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Citigroup has maintained its ‘hold’ rating on Idea Cellular.

>> Wednesday, November 26, 2008

Target price: Rs 56 

Citigroup has maintained its ‘hold’ rating on Idea Cellular while cutting its price target to Rs 56 from Rs 70 in line with an earnings down-grade for financial years 2009-11 by 1-3%. 

“Relatively weaker balance sheet compared to its larger peers reduces the funding flexibility in a tougher macro environment, thus constraining the valuation multiples,” the investment bank said in a report. 

“Estimated net debt of Rs 4,900 crore as of end-FY09 (Rs 3,200 crore as of September, ‘08) is under control though net debt/EBITDA (earnings before interest taxation depreciation and amortisation) will be 2.3-2.4 times in FY10-11E. While this will moderate Idea’s bidding intensity, on the flip side, its balance sheet is most vulnerable to 3G bidding risk,” Citi added. - ET

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ICICI Securities puts a buy on Indiabulls Real Estate.

Target price: Rs 170 

ICICI Securities has initiated coverage on Indiabulls Real Estate with a ‘buy’ rating, with a price target of Rs 170 on grounds the company is well capitalised to ride the current downturn in the realty sector. “IBREL has sold stake in its company and in properties to raise Rs 5,300 crore in the past two years. 

Its balance sheet is robust (debt Rs 205 crore, cash Rs 3,400 crore) to tied through the current downturn and capitalise on opportunities,” the broking company said in a recent report. “We estimate FY09E NAV (net asset value) to be Rs 8,800 crore, or Rs 341/share (target price Rs 170/share assuming 50% dis-count to NAV). Given the execution risks, we expect the stock to trade on its balance sheet strength (cash per share Rs 122, FY08 BV/share Rs 171) rather than the potential of the project pipeline,” it added. - ET

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Kotak Securities puts accumulate on Voltas

Target price: 57 

Kotak Securities’ private client research has maintained its ‘accumulate’ rating on Voltas while trimming the price target to Rs 57 from Rs 70. 

“We are downgrading our earnings and target price for Voltas in view of deteriorating fundamentals in its major user industries,” the retail broking firm said, referring to slowdown in Dubai property market and declining investments of South India-based textile makers. 

“Close to 81% of the order backlog of Rs 5,600 crore is from the Middle East (realty) market. Out of this, the order book from Dubai constituted just Rs 105 crore. Voltas indicated that they had anticipated a sharp slowdown in the Dubai market since a year earlier and had been consciously reducing exposure in the Dubai property market,” it said. The slackening of the consumer durables business, including water coolers window and split ACs, is also expected to weigh down Voltas’ revenue growth, Kotak said. - ET

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Karvy puts buy on SpiceJet.

Target price: Rs 16 

Karvy Stockbroking has maintained an ‘outperformer’ rating on SpiceJet, with a price target of Rs 16 in the wake of a fall in aviation fuel prices. 

“Lower ATF prices would lead to fall in airfares and that in turn would stimulate air travel. ATF prices are down by almost 40% from their peak in August 2008. ATF prices have come down to near October 2007 levels but the current airfares are still around 30% higher than airfares prevailing during October 2007,” the broking firm said in a report. 

“However, the general slowdown in the economy is expected to play its role and therefore, even though we expect the passenger traffic to improve, it would still be lower on a YoY basis. On the other hand, we expect the average fares to remain higher by around 30% on YoY basis,” it added. - ET

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LKP puts buy on Aries Agro.

Target price: Rs 75 

LKP Shares has recommended a ‘buy’ on Aries Agro, with a 12-month price target of Rs 75 on expectations that net profits would grow 65% and revenues would increase 42%, compounded over the next two years. 

The company posted a 23% drop in net profit in the first half of 2008-09, led by a 4% drop in operating profit margins to 20.5%, according to the broking firm. “Aries took a price increase during the end of the first quarter and another one during the second quarter, which we believe should enable the company to arrest the decline in margins during the second half of the current fiscal,” LKP said in a report. 

The outfit estimates Aries’ earnings per share for 2008-09 at Rs 9.24, as against Rs 8.79 in 2007-08. In 2009-10, its EPS is estimated at Rs 16.93.

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Indian market outlook and daytrading ideas for 26th Nov.

Markets may open Positive.

Indian markets witnesed another chopsy day yesterday.
US marketes ended mixed.
Europe ended green.
Asia has opned mixed and I expect markets to open flat.
Indian markets will witness a selling preasure very soon.
Be aware.
Levels to watch out for BSE Sensex are - Support at 8700 and 8450 and resistance for upmove at 9635 and 10200
Levels on NIFTY -  Support at 2550 and resistance for upmove at 2865 and 3110

Day trading ideas.

HDIL
Buy above 77.90 for targets of 79 and 81
Sell below 74 for targets of 72 and 70

REI Agro (BSE Code - 532106  )
Buy above 450 for targets of 478 and 515
Sell below 420 for targets of 398 and 380

Unitech
Buy above 28.90 for targets of 29.90 and 32
Sell below 27.90 for targets of 27.10 and 26.10

Sesa Goa
Buy above 69 for targets of 72 and 73.90
Sell below 62 for targets of 60 and 58.50

Happy Investing.
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Hold Tata Chemicals: PINC

>> Tuesday, November 25, 2008

PINC Research has maintained its hold rating on Tata Chemicals in its November 25, 2008 research report. "Tata chem. announced successful refinancing of the USD 300 million bridge loan it had taken for funding the GCIP (General Chemicals Industrial Products Inc.) acquisition in Mar’08."

"At the CMP of Rs 138, Tata chem. is trading at a P/E of 4.5x and EV/EBIDTA of 4.3x its FY10 estimates. With slowdown in construction activity and automobile manufacturing, prices of glass are witnessing significant correction. The same would put pressure on soda ash prices, especially at a time when full year contracts are due for renewal in Jan’09 for BMG and GCIP facilities. We have factored in a 15% reduction in soda ash prices across all facilities. The correction in soda ash prices can be more severe than estimated by us. Hence we maintain our ‘HOLD’ recommendation," says PINC's research report.

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Buy Union Bank, target of Rs 194: Angel

Angel Broking has recommended a buy rating Union Bank of India with a target of Rs 194 in its November 21, 2008 research report. "We believe UNBK is amongst the more profitable, efficient and competitive PSU Banks. We have a positive outlook on the bank due to traction in CASA deposit growth driven by large branch expansion plans as well as cost-efficient operations. We expect the Bank to deliver 12% CAGR in Net Profit and 24% RoE over FY2008-10E."

"At Rs 144, the stock is trading at 4.2x FY2010E EPS of Rs 34.3 and 0.9x FY2010E ABV of Rs 161.9. The stock has been trading at a median one-year forward P/ABV multiple of 1.1x since April 2002. We value the stock at 1.2x FY2010E ABV to arrive at a 12-month Target Price of Rs 194, implying an upside of 35%. We recommend a Buy on the stock," says Angel Broking's research report.

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Buy PNB, target of Rs 625: Angel

Angel Broking has recommended a buy rating on (PNB) with a target of Rs 625 in its November 21, 2008 research report. "We believe PNB is amongst the more profitable and competitive PSBs, with relatively moderate Earnings growth and strong RoE prospects. We have a positive outlook on the Bank due to its superior CASA ratio and high core income component in Earnings, tempered by relatively moderate growth momentum. We expect the bank to deliver about 21% RoE over FY2008-10E and maintain high RoEs relative to peers over the longer term as well, underpinning higher valuation multiples."

"At Rs 451, the stock is trading at 4.9x FY2010E EPS of Rs 92.5 and 0.9x FY2010E Adjusted Book Value (ABV) of Rs 480.4. We value the stock at 1.3x FY2010E ABV to arrive at a 12-month Target Price of Rs 625,implying an upside of 39%. We recommend a Buy on the stock," says Angel Broking's research report.

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Buy Bank Of India, target of Rs 317: Angel

Angel Broking mantains a buy on Bank Of India with a price target of 317

Angel Broking has recommended a buy rating on BOI with a target price of Rs 317 in its November 21, 2008 research report. "We are positive on Bank of India (BOI) due to its balanced funding mix, moderate operating costs, efficient capital management and high core fee income. Consistent improvement in operating leverage and relatively higher resilience in NIMs have led to improvement in core RoE. Hence, we value the stock at 1.3x FY2010E ABV (above its median P/ABV of 1.0x since April 2002) to arrive at a 12-month target price of Rs 317. We recommend a Buy on the stock," says Angel's research report. - MC

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S&P maintains credit watch on Citigroup after govt bailout

Global credit rating agency Standard and Poor's has maintained a credit watch with negative implications on troubled financial giant Citigroup INC , after it received a multi-billion dollar rescue package from the US government. 

"We expect the support to reduce impact of deteriorating asset quality on the ratings and help to restore confidence in the company. As a result, we no longer believe that ratings would fall more than one notch by year-end," Standard and Poor's credit analyst Tanya Azarchs said. 

"However, we would provide our stand-alone assessment of creditworthiness, which excludes government support. This assessment could be lower than the issuer credit rating, to reflect the potential for substantial asset-quality deterioration," Azarchs added. 

S&P maintained credit watch with negative implications on the counterparty credit rating of 'AA-' on Citigroup Inc. 'AA-' refers to an investment grade rating but involving a higher degree of long-term risk. 

"The guarantee package on 306 billion dollar of assets provided by the US government as well the equity investment, are, in our view, a clear message of support for this and other systematically important banks, the agency said. 

"In our view, the immediate package is sufficient to limit the downside risk represented by the troubled assets. It should also remove the causes of a crisis of confidence that could have overtaken the organisation," it said. 

The US government is investing in $20 billion of preferred stock that is redeemable at Citigroup's option for common stock or cash.

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Indian market outlook and daytrading ideas for 25th Nov.

Indian Markets ended flat yesterday.

US markets yesterday rallied as US Gov has plans to rescue Citigroup INC.
Europe was up at an average of 10%.
So expect Indian markets to rallie sure shot.
More over Asia is trading positive.
Today Sensex is bonded to cross 9000 Mark.
Support for Sensex is at 8700 and 8450 and resistance for upmove is at 9350 and 9600
and Support for NIFTY is at 2650 and resistance for upmove is at 2860 and 3100.

Day trading Ideas.
ITC
Buy above 173 for targets of 174.85 and 175.90
Sell below 169 for targets of 167.85 and 167.10

Punj Lloyd
Buy above 143 for targets of 146 and 148.15
Sell below 140 for targets of 138 and 136

RNRL
Buy above 41.90 for targets of 42.50 and 43.15
Sell below 40.50 for targets of 39.40 and 98.60

Suzlon
Buy above 48 for targets of 49.50 and 51.50
Sell below 45 for targets of 43.50 and 42

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Indian market outlook and daytrading ideas for 24th Nov.

>> Monday, November 24, 2008

US markets had rallied.

Asia has opened mixed.
Europe was down on an avereage of 3%.
Expect markets to have a flat opening.

The support for the Sensex is 8450-8316 and the resistance to the up move is at 9635-10324.

Nifty: (2693) the support for the Nifty is at 2500 and the resistance to the up move is at 2860-3113.


Day trading ideas.

Unitech

Buy above 32.35 for targets of 33.90 & 34.95

Sell below 29.80 for targets of 28.10 & 27.50


NTPC

Buy above 146.45 for targets of 148.90 & 150.25

Sell below 141.10 for targets of 139.50 & 137.50


Axis Bank.

Buy above 405 for targets of 408 & 411

Sell below 398 for targets of 395 & 392


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Weekly news letter and Stocks to watch now.

>> Sunday, November 23, 2008

Indian Stock Markets have witnessed a worst hit. Indian markets are now down over 57% from its peak. Its almost at its 3 years low.

Markets need a good breath now. Traders are worried and even Investors.
Recession has covered the whole globe.
No one has been left out. No fundamentals in markets as of now.

When I look at NIFTY charts I see an uptrend to come till 2780 in short term.
Indian markets will be the first to recover says SEBI cheaf CB Bhave.

Stocks you should look out are.

LNT - Plans to add 10,000 staff by 2010 and the stock has good fundamentals so a reason to buy its Support is at 665 and 711 and a resistance for upmove at 791 and 825.

Unitech - This is one of the most beaten out scrip 52 week High of 600 odd and low of 27 odd. Makes sense in buying and booking profits at 40 odd levels.

SBI - Inflation has cooled and if RBI takes some action in reducing the CRR or Repo Rate it will benefit and then makes sense to buy for short term.

ICICI - The same above reason apples and even if you go to see its is one of the most beeten out blue chip after DLF and Hindalco.

Sectors I am bullish on -

Infrastructure and Banking and later Metals.
All of these sectors have witnessed the worst hit ever so chances are there for these sectors to recover very fast.

Happy Investing .
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Weekly NIFTY technicals.

Last week we saw a short covering comming on Friday.

Now see a Gap up on Monday and if NIFTY sustains above 2640 Next target would be 2890 - 2950 in comming month below that we could test 2090 -2010.

NIFTY Moving averages.

5 D

8 D

13 D

20 D

39 D

50 D

200 D

2673

2745

2855

2824

3189

3411

4368



Only a close above 2745 can get a target of 2855 in short term.

See In charts NIFTY bound to touch 2700 before expiry. Dont short any thing before expiry.



The Indian VIX index is 64.46 down 1.6% so I see a upmove of atleat 75 points on Monday.
This week we could see more volatility on NIFTY.

Happy Investing!

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What happned in Indian Markets this week ?

>> Saturday, November 22, 2008

The Full week was dull almost every day we saw a red stroke or a downtrend but an excellent pulback of 464 points on SENSEX i.e 5.5%. on Friday.

The whole week markets were mainly down because of bad global cues.
Inflation in single digits thats cool.
Crude Oil sliped below 50$ before recovering. Thats also good.
The bad news is worlds second largest economy JAPAN slips in recession.
Germany went in recession last week.
And the same job cuts news continue to rule.

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BNP Paribas maintains ‘buy’ rating on Maruti Suzuki India

Maruti Suzuki India 
CMP: Rs 511.35 
TARGET PRICE: Rs 760

BNP Paribas has maintained a ‘buy’ rating on Maruti Suzuki India even while lowering the target price from the earlier Rs 840 to Rs 760. The foreign broking firm expects the company to regain market share with the launch of A-Star. “We believe the new A-Star will help Maruti regain most of its 230bp market share loss in the compact car segment,” says the report. 

The report also explains that the newly-launched A-Star has “focused on value, with feature-rich offerings and high fuel efficiency, rather than on performance.” The A-Star and the impending launch of the Splash in 1QFY10 will improve Maruti’s position in the A2 segment, where it has a 57% market share but had not launched any new products in the past two years, the report goes on to add.

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ULJK Securities puts ‘buy’ on Bombay Rayon Fashion

Bombay Rayon 
CMP: Rs 154.65 
TARGET PRICE: Rs 263
ULJK Securities has a ‘buy’ rating on Bombay Rayon Fashion as, according to the broking outfit, the company is increasing its production capacity and also has a diversified market presence. “The company has taken steps for expansion in Maharashtra, which include setting up of the garments manufacturing capacity of 100,000 pieces per day and of fabrics capacity of 180 mn mtr/annum,” says the report. 

The company also has a good presence in the US as well as in Europe, it adds. The report also highlights the point that while the company’s garments are sold in the offshore market, its fabrics are sold in the domestic arena. According to the broking firm, at a CMP of Rs 156, the stock discounts at an FY09E EPS of Rs 26.80 by 5.8 times and an FY10E EPS of Rs 43.80 by 3.5 times.

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US Banking majors are busy cutting jobs.

>> Friday, November 21, 2008

Nows its the turn of Bank of New York Mellon after Citi Bank.

Bank of New York Mellon is planning to cut 1800 jobs blaming weak economy.
While Citigroup INC said it will cut 53,000 jobs.
More over Citi Banks Indian CEO resigned and is replaced by Mark Robinson.

Whats Next ? Who knows ?

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SEBI finds no manipulation in ICICI stock prices.

Do you remember ICICI banks gtear fall.

It had many huge intraday falls , the one of 25% , who can afford to forget it.
ICICI was angry and approached SEBI for investigation.

The bank had in September sought an investigation by SEBI into its share price movement, alleging that rumours were being spread about the bank to deliberately bring down its stock price. The ICICI scrip had started to tank on news of its exposure to Lehman bonds, and although the bank’s CEO had announced that its fundamentals were sound, the fall was not arrested.

SEBI analysed the trading pattern of the shares of ICICI Bank for the period September 8 to October 10, 2008 when the scrip fell 49.52 per cent, from Rs 720 to Rs 363.65.

“SEBI did not find evidence of manipulative trading in the ICICI Bank shares during the period referred,” said the release.

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PM: global institutions must be representative

India will emerge stronger from the global economic crisis and global institutions must be made more representative of developing nations, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said on Friday.

In speech to a conference, Singh said the world had become more interdependent and the voice of developing nations must be heard in the high councils of global decision-making.

"Global problems require global solutions. This is the most important lesson of the past century for the present century," Singh said.

"But global institutions of governance must be made more inclusive and representative," he said, according to a text of the speech.

Singh took part in a summit in Washington last weekend with leaders of the Group of 20 nations to discuss how to tackle the crisis which has shaken financial markets worldwide, frozen credit markets and pushed some major economies into recession.

He said the G20 meeting was the first time developing nations' voices had been heard with respect in a global forum and said there was agreement that recourse to protectionism was no remedy.

Indian authorities are struggling to shore up growth against the impact of the global financial crisis and have taken a host of steps including sharp rate cuts to fend off damage to the broader economy.

Singh said the world was in a deep crisis but despite an adverse international environment India had the capacity to sustain a growth rate of about 8 percent.

"We will, through the use of fiscal policies, through the use of monetary policies, through the use of public investment, ensure that the shortage of demand coming as it is from the global slowdown is neutralised to the maximum possible extent," he said.

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SEBI has no plans to stop short selling says C.B.Bhave

The Security and exchange bord of India (SEBI) commented that it has no plans to put a ban on short selling.

Many markets have put up an ban on short selling in West but SEBI has no such plans.
It aslo added that SEBI and stock exchanges cannot predict the market situations.

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Sensex surges over 300 pts on PM’s assurance.

The 30-share index, which opened higher by 160 points, surged further by 323.93 to 8,774.94 points despite weak global markets.


The benchmark Sensex soared by over 320 points in late morning trade on Friday after Prime Minister Manmohan Singh assured that country will sustain a growth rate of 8% despite the adverse impact of the global financial crisis.
The 30-share index, which opened higher by 160 points, surged further by 323.93 to 8,774.94 points despite weak global markets. The BSE barometer had tanked over 2,100 points in the last seven trading sessions.
The wide-based National Stock Exchange’s Nifty moved up by 95.25 points at 2,648.46 points.
“We have the ability to sustain a growth rate of about eight per cent. And we will do so,” the Prime Minister said at the Hindustan Times Leadership Summit here.
Marketmen said sentiment turned better after government data showed inflation declined by 0.08% to 8.90% during the week ended 8 November.
Country’s most valuable company Reliance Industries gained Rs19.40, or 1.83%, at Rs1,078, while ONGC stocks gained Rs24.50, or 3.77%, at Rs674.90 mainly contributed rise to the Sensex.
SBI stocks gained Rs26.75, or 2.45% at Rs1,119.30.
Other gainers were BHEL, Larsen and Toubro, Bharti Airtel, DLF Ltd, Grasim Industries, Maruti, Mahindra, Mahindra and Sterlite Industries. Tata Power and Tata Consultancy. - Mint

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Realty stocks under pressure on liquidity concerns.

Despite the broadbased rally, realty stocks failed to pick up steam on Friday as investors resorted to heavy selling on sustained concers about availability of funds. Industry leaders Unitech and DLF continued to crumble. 

Market analysts said selling pressure went up after reports that DLF has postponed residential, commercial and hotel projects due to low demand. The real estate developer said it would terminate services of some of company's employees and stop working on some of its projects. Unitech and Parsvnath Developers also retrenched their staff last month in line as part of the cost cutting drive due to global meltdown. 

"Real estate is likely to underperform for the next 3-4 quarters. The interest rate for the realty firms as well as consumers has to come down to boost volumes. We estimate that the volumes won't go higher unless the prices correct by 30-40 per cent. But the builders are adament on the prices. However, according to the economic cycle, the prices have to go down because there is no affordability in the market," said Shailesh Kanani of Angel Broking. 

"Also, some builders expanded largely expecting the bull run to continue and bought land at exhorbitant rates and now are stuck in the change of economic cycle. We expect almost a 50 percent degrowth in the sector over the next 2-3 quarter," he added.

Rising borrowing costs, surging real estate prices and liquidity crunch ended the rally in the country's property market on the deepening global financial crisis. 

At noon, the BSE Realty Index fell 5.09 per cent with Unitech falling 10.53 per cent and DLF losing 4.24 per cent. Among other players, HDIL shed 5.88 per cent, Omaxe fell 4.44 per cent, Ansal Infrastructure was down 4.82 per cent. 

Meanwhile, Bombay Stock Exchange's Sensex rose 3.41 per cent or 288 points to 8,739.42 and National Stock Exchange's Nifty climbed 3.45 per cent or 88.1 points to 2641.25. - ET

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Market outlook and day trading ideas for 21th Nov.

Indian markets despite of good inflation numbers cracked badley due to global cues.

US markets yesterday saw a worst hit Dow down below 7550 points.
Europe was down over 3%.
Asia has opened weak.
Expect a gap down to flat opening in Indian Markets.

The support for the Sensex is 8649-8393 and the resistance to the up move is at 8775-8870

Nifty: (2553) the support for the Nifty is at 2500-2464 and the resistance to the up move is at 2754-2860

Day trading ideas.

LNT
Buy above 710 for targets of 716 & 723
Sell below 702 for targets of 696 & 690

Praj Ind.
Buy above 54.25 for targets of 56.30 & 58.80
Sell below 51.75 for targets of 49.10 & 47.90

Unitech
Buy above 35.60 for targets of 36.90 & 38.70
Sell below 33.80 for targets of 32.50 & 30.70

Happy Investing.

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Inflation at 8.90 for week ended November 8.

>> Thursday, November 20, 2008

Inflation fall marginally at 8.90 compared to 8.98 last week.

Inflation slipped to single digit after 21 weeks at the beginning of this month.
Analysts said a decline in global commodity prices, robust domestic agricultural output and a fall in demand in a slowing economy helped bring the rate to single-digits well ahead of earlier expectations.
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