>> Sunday, November 30, 2008
Last week we saw markets going marginally up after good global cues.
It was one of the most volatile weeks on the bourses with benchmark indices gyrating sharply as profit booking alternated with short covering before the F&O expiry date. While a big bailout package in which the US Government promised USD 326 billion to Citigroup helped the markets rebound, the buzz that Bank of America could be a potential bailout candidate spooked market participants.
Meanwhile, surprise steep rate cuts by China's (CRR by 108 basis points and interest rate reduced to 5.58% from 6.66%) during the mid week increased anticipation that other central banks too would follow the suit. Expectations of further cut in interest rates in India too gathered momentum after the Finance Minister announced that the monetary policy was now biased towards stimulating growth and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) was likely to lower rates further as inflation cooled.
However, the terror attack in the Indian financial capital led to the postponement of derivatives expiry by a day as the markets remained shut. This led to greater volatility on the last trading day of the week. Nevertheless, the Indian markets still managed to close above the 9000 points mark.
The stocks that were in the limelight this week included Kingfisher Airlines and IVRCL Infra in the mid-cap space while in the large-cap segment, Reliance stocks demonstrated considerable weakness.
The global slowdown and its imact on the Indian economy is no longer breaking news. There is a discernible slowdown being witnessed across the Indian economy. This is also reflected in the GDP data released for second quarter of 2008-09 wherein our economy grew at 7.6% as against 9.3% a year-ago and 7.9% in the previous quarter.
Slackening demand and increased inventories, liquidity crunch on account of reduced availability and rising cost of funds have been taking its toll on the performance of Indian Inc. With major manufacturing companies already announcing production cuts and temporary plant shutdowns, its adverse impact will be visible in the coming quarters.
There is some pessimism again building up that the massive bailout could worsen rather than improve the ongoing crisis. The depreciating rupee which hit a record low of 50.60 against the US dollar too does not provide near-term comfort.
For now, though there are some positives like cooling off of the inflation rate and expectations of a further rate cut, the weighing scale tilt towards the negative. Nevertheless, the next sell-off in the financial markets could provide a decent buying opportunity for investors with a long term view, although utmost caution is advised for the time being.
Stocks to look into this week.
ICICI Bank and SBI - Banking may soon see a Rate cut advantage to move up as Inflation is cooling.
India Hotels Ltd - The Mumbai terror attack one you cant afford to forget destroyed the Taj Heritage Hotels in South Mumbai we may see a sell of in this scrip.
Unitech - Unitech is still not a good buy can easily go below 20 levels. Dont buy levels to watch are 17.50 - 19.25 - 21.65 - 23.85 - 25.90 - 28.30 (Levels for whole month of December ) It can move between 17.50 to 28.30 levels.
Hindalco - Technicaly speaking this stock has ability to climbe up 10- 12 % from CMP in the week.
Happy Investing .