NIFTY Weekly Technical Analysis.

Last week we saw NIFTY was in a bullish mode. A good uptrend was seen. Followed by strong global cues.
Last week NIFTY closed at 3211.05 and this week at 3342.05 an increase of 130 points odd. A good one.
The week was followed with good global cues and also good local cues.
NIFTY TRIN at 0.566
Over all Nifty is Bullish.
NIFTY Nature - Heavily Over Bought

Support - 3150 and 3100
Resistance - 3425 and 3510
Reversal from either of these levels would provide the opportunity to initiate fresh short positions. (Resistance)

Nifty recorded the intra-week peak at 3401 and ended with a 131 points gain. The doji formation in the daily chart and the halt below the 200-day moving average at 3441 implies indecision in the short-term. A short-term correction can pull the index down to 3234 or 3131. Fresh longs should be avoided on a decline below the first support. Medium-term view will, however, turn negative only on a close below 3000.

Immediate targets for the current rally are 3326 and 3450. If there is a vertical break-out above 3450, next target would be 3911. However, targets for the B wave of the long-term down-move from the 6357 peak are 3680 and 4050. These could be the ceiling for the index for this calendar.

NIFTY Auto generated EOD Technicals.

Chart -

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Nifty Daily Chart Analysis (2849)

EOD chart has formed “Bullish Engulf Pattern” with “Hanging Man Pattern” on Friday. We are stick to same view as we advocated last week, Nifty is bullish above 2869 level on closing basis. Currently Nifty is well above its 13 EMA(2816) and 34 EMA(2867) which suggest there is some amount of Bull steam is left for near term although that doesn’t mean that market is bullish , for intermediate term outlook is still bearish unless and until if closes above 3147. Currently trend line support exist at 2800. Daily RSI and MACD is exhibiting positive divergence where as Stochastic is in over bought region.

Support:- 2841/2827/2815

Resistance:- 2929 /2953

By Dhawal Joshi

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Weekly support and resistance.

NIFTY has a support at 2790 and 2710 and a resistace at 2950 and 3025
Sensex has a support at 9100 and 8910 and resistance at 9540 and 9740

Do you know Zimbabwe rolls out 100 trillion Z$ notes !

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Market summary for 16th Jan.

The Sensex ended sharply positive as it rallied during the last hour of the trade. Sustained buying was seen in index pivotals. Oil & gas gained the most followed by power and metal stocks, while realty stocks dropped.

BSE Midcap and Smallcap index rose 0.53% and 0.07% respectively.

Among the sectoral indices, BSE Oil & gas soared 5.09%, Power surged 4.29%, Metal rose 3.45%, while Realty declined 2.39%.

The 30-share index, BSE Sensex opened with a gain of 78.91 points, at 9,125.65 on Friday and proceeded to trade higher through the day.

The Sensex ended the day with a gain of 276.85 points, or 3.06% at 9,323.59 after touching a high of 9,342.47 and a low of 9,125.65. The broad-based NSE Nifty climbed 91.75 points, or 3.35% at 2,828.45 after hitting a high of 2,835.65 and a low of 2,724.20.

Major gainers in the 30-share index were NTPC (7.69%), Reliance Energy (7.34%), Reliance Industries (6.56%), Tata Power Company (4.89%), Reliance Communications (4.79%), and Bharti Airtel (4.77%).

On the other hand, DLF (3.51%), Tata Consultancy Services (1.38%), Grasim Industries (1.11%), ACC (0.27%), and Maruti Suzuki India (0.22%) were the biggest losers in the Sensex.

Overall market breadth was sharply positive. Out of the total 2,497 stocks traded at BSE, 1,241 advanced, 1,162 declined while 94 remained unchanged.

	Indices Trend
		Sensex		Nifty
Period	Value	% Change	Value	% Change
1 Week	9,586.88	(2.75)	2,920.40	(3.15)
1 Month	9,976.98	(6.55)	3,041.75	(7.01)
3 Months	9,975.35	(6.53)	3,074.35	(8.00)
6 Months	13,635.40	(31.62)	4,092.25	(30.88)
1 Year	17,605.35	(47.04)	5,208.80	(45.70)

MyIRIS

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NIFTY Weekly Technical

On my Birth Day I am writing this post. Hope it benefits.

Last week markets went up as predicted.

The coming week we may see more volatility. But I am bullish until NIFTY doesn’t break 2840. Above 3150 we can see 3225 and 3280.

We are in a range bounded mode.

On Monday we could see our markets rally.

Fundamentals are in favor of markets. But the FII’s are still pulling out their money.

Simple Moving Averages.

5 D	8 D	13 D	20 D	39 D	50 D	200 D
2988	2960	2989	2945	2865	2873	4062

Currently we are above 50 Days moving average.

We may face a stiff resistance at 3100.

Fibonacci price projections-

	0%	61.8%	100%	161.8%	261.8%
Up	2813	2997	3110	3294	3591
Dn	3110	2926	2813	2629	2332

Chart –

Other Indicators –

- Volume (last/ 5 day average): 0 / 0
- 5 day RSI: 67 - no indication.
- 14 day RSI: 57 - no indication.
- Williams % R(14): 79 (summation factor 100)
- Average Directional Index ADX: 13
- Average True Range ATR: 5 days - 85 .....14 days - 110

NIFTY Futures –

Buy signal holds. Stop loss 2960.

Strong resistance at 3100. Previous top and trend line resistance.

Markets to continue trading within channel (EOD charts).

Happy Investing!

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Markets may recover from next week

Technical analyst, Vishwas Agarwal, while commenting on the market said, ``From Monday or Tuesday onwards, market will start recovering for second and last round of current upmove. As this market will make next stop before January 14 and from there onwards, corporate results will start which are expected to be weak.``

``We have only around 10 working days to make money and exit from weak stock. 2,876 is the basic support and 2,976 is important to cross for a strong upmove. Overall market view is trade with stoploss only with no major big target for any upside in Nifty or any stock,`` added Agarwal. - MyIRIS

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Will markets rally till New Year?

We never needed it more: a Santa Claus rally. The big question is whether it will happen in 2008? Much like the Wall Street, history
Santa and stocks
says Indian stock markets tend to rally from Christmas Eve to the New Year's Day (or the first trading day of the New Year).

FIIs or mutual funds
or big investors may not be bullish but if Santa has his way, investors will have something nice to finish the year, which saw Sensex lose over 50% of its value.

If investors want some hope, they can take heart from the fact that from 2000 onwards the sensex has never given negative returns for this period, which falls within the Yuletide.

Santa Claus rallies are said to happen as people tend to consume more, invest for tax breaks and more importantly, pessimists stay on vacation during this week, say experts.

For the rally to happen in 2008, the start seems to be a little off the track with Sensex losing 240 point on Friday. But people haven't lost hope.

"An encore of 2003, 2004 or even 2006 could see Sensex gain anything between 3% and 6%. The sentiment not withstanding, we never know what markets might throw at us," an institutional head at a local brokerage said.

A rally at this point could be a possibility because downsides from slowdown and lesser profits in third quarter are already there in the prices to a certain extent, he said.

For a 6-7 day window that exists between Christmas Eve and the first trading of the New Year, Santa has made decent stops at the Indian stock markets. - ET

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Stocks to remain upbeat next week; Nifty resistance seen at 2900

A resilient Mumbai got back to its feet Friday after terrorist attacks tried to handicap India's financial hub. Shrugging off the panic situation that gripped the city, the Indian bourses put up a good show and analysts feel the upmove will continue in the forthcoming week as well. 

"It is heartening to see the market closing above 2650 levels despite all the negativity around. I expect the pullback rally to continue with resistance pegged around 2900-3000 on the Nifty and around 9500 levels on the Sensex. Selective buying in specific sectors like power is advised," said Hitesh Sheth, head-technical research at Prabhudas Lilladher. 

Despite a modest slowdown, India's economic performance in the September quarter was impressive, as its growth rate surprised on the upside at a time when most economies around the world are reporting shockingly weak GDP numbers. This gave further impetus to market sentiment Friday. 

However, Moody's Economy.com feels that the solid growth pace in the September quarter does not mean that India is immune from the global downturn. 

"As the world has become increasingly interconnected, no economy can escape from this severe global financial tsunami. The recession in several major economies now foreshadows a tough time ahead for India. Prospects for the December quarter and much of 2009 are grim, and a sharp deceleration in India's GDP growth is expected in the final three months of this year," warns Sherman Chan, economist at Moody's Economy.com. 

Chan added that India's GDP growth for the next four quarters will certainly slip below the 7% mark and may even test the 6% mark around mid-2009. 

Meanwhile, global rating agency Standard & Poor's stated that attacks were an isolated case and that it does not expect any negative implications on India's macro economic activities or the government's fiscal position from the attacks. 

"The terrorist act will have limited impact on markets. And given that our GDP came in better than expected, markets are likely to be bullish in the coming week. Nifty has a strong support at 2600. Rollovers were also healthy with good build-up of long positions," said Ramesh Agarwal of Global One Advisory. 

On a provisional basis, the Nifty rollover of positions from November to December series stood at 64% while marketwide rollover stood at 71% on the current month's F&O expiry. 

In the cash market, Bombay Stock Exchange's Sensex ended at 8,915.21, up 1.99 per cent or 177.51 points from the previous week while National Stock Exchange's Nifty closed 61.65 points or 2.28 per cent at 2755.10. 

On the other hand, with inflation gradually easing, all eyes are on the Reserve Bank of India to cut rates in order to sustain demand. However, facing a large debt burden, it is difficult for the government to be as aggressive as they would like in boosting economic activity. Inflation edged lower to 8.84 percent for the week ended November 15 from 8.90 the previous week. 

Meanwhile, the world will be watching with great interest on the kind of sales figures in the US over the weekend. "If we see a growth of 3 per cent over last year same store sales, we could have a global stock market rally. However, if sales fall below 3 per cent, a visit on the October lows will be on the cards," said VK Sharma of Anagram Stock Broking. 

The day after the Thanksgiving holiday is commonly known as 'black Friday', not because of any grim association, but because it is the day that retailers usually move out of the red and into profitability for the year. The period between Thanksgiving and Christmas accounts for between 40% and 50% of annual retail sales in the US. 

Analysts are expecting one of the toughest holiday seasons in decades and Friday's sales figures will test the strength of consumer confidence. Many took the unusual step of opening yesterday on the Thanksgiving holiday in the hope of stimulating extra sales. - ET

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