My Thoughts - Elections, Market Correction, Political Uncertainty

>> Tuesday, April 28, 2009

The Indian stock markets have had a dream run in the last one month. The Bombay Stock Exchange sensitive index - Sensex - has climbed a staggering 39% since the low reached on March 9, 2009. It is thus one of the best performing Asian Index and better performing indexes with respect to global markets. 

But election uncertainty seems to be getting ripe. We end elections on April 30th, which started on April 16th. The Counting of votes starts on May 16th. I do not think there would be a clear majority, with neither Congress nor BJP claiming absolute power or control in the Lok Sabha.

Which means new equations and ugly preferential tie-ups and coalitions based more on convenience than any principal or common charter. 

The 3rd front which claims to be sworn enemies of both Congress and BJP may break convention and join hands with one of the leading parties. Don't forget this has happened in the past, when left joined congress, saying they want BJP to be out, we need a secular government. Don't be too surprised if this same scenario is repeated again this year.

With every ugly coalition comes a compromise, which is paid in turn by the country, the public and over all growth suffers. We have seen this in the last 5 years. Every move to non-regulate business, privatize and increase FDI was faced with stiff competition from the Left Parties. Congress in turn could not bring about the much needed reform in the banking, insurance and other sectors. Result is simple - plagued growth. 

We all know that the myth that Indian markets will remain isolated from global economic crisis was shattered completely. Most recent indication is ICICI whose profit fell 35%.

The New-India as I would like to call it, does not need another 5 years of handicap progress. We need to run and cannot afford to limp. I do not see progress, hence do not see a healthy stock market at least in the next 1 month. 

Trade Cautiously, Book Gains. Be Bullwise and Bearaware.

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