Inflation at 8.90 for week ended November 8.

Inflation fall marginally at 8.90 compared to 8.98 last week.

Inflation slipped to single digit after 21 weeks at the beginning of this month.

Analysts said a decline in global commodity prices, robust domestic agricultural output and a fall in demand in a slowing economy helped bring the rate to single-digits well ahead of earlier expectations.

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Stock Idea - Gujarat NRE Coke.

Gujarat NRE Coke Limited is a manufacturer of low-ash metallurgical coke in India. The Company operates in two segments: coke and steel. During the fiscal year ended March 31, 2008 (fiscal 2008), coke contributed 73% of the revenue, while steel contributed 27%. The Company has three mines: NRE # 1, NRE Avondale and Elouera Collieries. During fiscal 2008, the Company through an Australian subsidiary, acquired Elouera, which was consolidated with NRE Avondale (collectively, NRE Wongawilli). The Company is generating power through its wind turbines and intends to set up a co-generation power plant. The Company operates 34 wind turbine generators with capacities to generate 45.5 megawatt power.

As expected, Gujarat NRE Coke, country’s largest independent producer of met coke posted a very performance for the second quarter ended 30th September 2008. The second quarter continues to reflect the boom it had in the prices of coke and coal but the coming months would not start reflecting the fall in their prices.

For Q2FY09, total Income has shown a jump of 4.86 times from Rs.102.07 crores to Rs.496.05 crores, resulting in a surge of 8.19 times in the Net Profit, from Rs.12.55 crores to Rs.102.75 crores. This performance has been a foregone conclusion but what is important now is the coming months.

Like the fall in prices in almost all commodities, right across the board, coke prices have also seen a meltdown. With demand from steel and power units coming down, and globally also prices coming down, realizations for the company too have gone down. Coke prices have gone down by 21% from $700 a tonne in July-August to $500 levels now. And the fall in prices is expected to continue. This means that in the coming months, margins will come pressure and the earnings it has posted for Q2 would remain as history.

The stock price went ex-bonus from 17th October and is currently at levels of Rs.30. The market is discounting the pressure on margins which the company is bound to face in the coming months. But that apart, which is today not an isolated case with just Gujarat NRE but a reality with all companies, all across the globe, the company remains sound. There have been some concerns about the management but these do not hold much truth, its just a perception which simply cannot be corrected. Infact the promoters have hiked their holding in the company by 4.8% through creeping acquisition route during April-October 2008 and it now stands increased at over 45%. It is also going ahead with its plans for the rights issue with differential voting rights (DVR) to the existing shareholders of the company in the ratio of 1 DVR share for 450 existing equity shares at a price of Rs 1,000 per DVR share.

The biggest positive in favour of the company is its sheer size and its operations in Australia. The company’s present coke production capacity of 1.006 million tonne is being expanded in a phased manner to 1.254 million tonne and 2.254 million by 31st March 2009 and 31st December 2010. It is also the only company owning and operating coking coal mines in Australia and both mines are now in production. During the current fiscal the ROM coking coal production from its two mines is expected to be in excess of 1million tonne and brownfield developments are underway to ramp up the production to beyond 7 million tones by 2012/13.
The long term outlook remains positive. Earnings are bound to take a hit as realizations have come down. But if one looks beyond H2, things look good at the current rate

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Market outlook and day trading ideas for 20th Nov.

US markets have cracked badly down over 5%.

Asia has opened weak.

Asia is down on an average of 4%.

I expect a weak opening.

The support for the Sensex is 8649-8393 and the resistance to the up move is at 8940-9130

Nifty: (2619) the support for the Nifty is at 2542-2464 and the resistance to the up move is at 2680

Day trading ideas.

Look out for stocks such as RNRL , RPL , Ispat , IFCI mostly volume buzzers.

I am not giving levels today as it is advisable not to trade.

Happy Investing.

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Stock to watch - RPL

Reliance Petroleum Ltd.(RPL)
Target Price: 97
Religare Hichens Harrison has said that Reliance Petroleum’s (RPL) state-of-the-art refinery is slated for commencement by end-2008 with a capacity of 29mtpa (~580,000bpd), making it the sixth largest plant in the world. The refinery has a Nelson complexity of 14 - much higher than 11.7 for Reliance Industries’ existing plant - and can process heavy crude types up to APIs of 17.

However, the brokerage highlighted that about 8.8 million barrels per day of new refining capacities are expected to come on stream between 2008-2013, particularly in China, India and the Middle East.

Further, growing concerns of an economic slowdown are leading to lower demand for gasoline and petroleum products, which would keep refining margins under pressure.
Religare Hichens has a target price of Rs 97 for RPL, and has an ‘accumulate’ rating on the stock

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Analysts' Picks: OnMobile Global.

OnMobile Global

Cmp: Rs 214 

Target - 330

Ambit Capital has maintained a ‘buy’ rating on OnMobile Global while lowering the price target after the company revised its internal growth guidance apart from delaying the launch of its new product (AdRBT). “With the deteriorating macro-economic scenario and extenuating market condition, OnMobile Global management has revised its internal growth guidance to 50-55% as against the earlier guidance of 60-65%,” says the report. 

It further adds that the delay in rollout of AdRBT and a slower VAS deployment by clients have further negatively impacted estimates. According to the report, the company reported a muted performance during Q2FY09 with net profit growing by 21% Q-o-Q to Rs 183.5 million as against Rs 151.7 million sequentially. “OGL also guided for a lower net margins down from earlier 20-22% to 20-21% for FY09e,” says the report.

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BNP Paribas maintains ‘buy’ on ONGC.

ONGC 
Cmp: Rs 667.75

Target - 821

BNP Paribas has maintained a ‘buy’ rating on ONGC while lowering the price target by 30% to factor in the change in the global crude prices. “A consistent decline in oil prices means that ONGC’s net realisation declines at a price, wherein oil marketing companies break-even (around $61/bbl),” says the broking company in a report released on Tuesday. In such a scenario, shares do not act as a hedge to falling crude oil prices as the subsidy factor loses its impact at least in the near term, it adds. According to BNP Paribas’ estimates, $85-90/bbl is the optimum range for ONGC, wherein the marginal utility of each additional barrel of oil that it sells reduces. The broking firm believes that ONGC’s subsidy number for Q2FY09 was significantly high and hence, does not expect similar realisations. - ET

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Why is Indian market higher today ?

Markets opened in green and didnt change its colour. " Yet in Green " (+54 Points on Sensex @ 2.10 pm.)

Markets had a flat opening of 30 odd points on Sensex and 17 odd points on Nifty.

This is just a short covering. 

More over we saw some buying comming in way of some of the bluechip scrips.

IT is down due to rupee fluctuation.

Now markets are starting to give up all it gain.

This is a profit booking section.

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Market outlook and day trading ideas for 19th Nov.

US markets ended positive. Citi group is to cut 50K jobs.

Three top automakets beg for 25 billion $.

Asia has opened weak.

We may have a flat to positive opening. If we have a gap down opening it would be of max 120 points on Sensex.

I expect Sensex to recover from days low.

The support for the Sensex is 8649 and the resistance to the up move is at 9320

Nifty: (2683) the support for the Nifty is at 2596 and the resistance to the up move is at 2872-2927.

Day trading ideas.

TCS

Buy above 486 for targets of 491 & 495

Sell below 471 for targets of 467 & 462

LNT

Buy above 770 for targets of 777 & 783

Sell below 758 for targets of 751 & 747

If markets have a huge gap up opening I would short both of them.

Happy Investing.

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Stock Quotes

Hi People This service is not available for some time.
Sorry for the inconvenience caused.

We will be back with this service soon and a much professional one this time.

See you soon here.

Will be right back on 15th Jan 2009.

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How do you define Recession ?

Recession is "A period of general economic decline, part of the usual business cycle."

"|A significant decline in general economic activity extending over a period of time."

Or else "As reflected in the gross national product, a decline in economic activity in at least two consecutive quarters."

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