Experts say FII inflows may resume in second half of 2009

Foreign Institutional Investors, who deserted the Indian bourses last year, leaving them to face the heat of the global economic crisis are likely to make a come back in the second half of this year.

FIIs, which pulled out over 13 billion dollar from the Indian stock markets in 2008, following severe credit crunch in the US and Europe are likely to again gain momentum in the later part of this year.

According to a latest India strategy report by BNP Paribas, currency appreciation could be a significant driver of FII inflows.
"Our outlook on Rupee appreciation implies that FII inflows into Indian equities could restart in H2CY09. Concerns on capital outflows still exist (due to deleveraging in developed markets), but our empirical analysis shows currency appreciation is a significant driver of FII inflows," BNP Paribas analyst Manishi Raychaudhuri said in the report.

The report stated that even as there is an ongoing debate about whether currency appreciation causes FII inflows or vice-versa.

Meanwhile, not giving any prediction about the time period by when the FII flows into the country may be revived, Coxe Advisors LLC Global Capital Markets Strategist and CEO Donald Coxe told PTI that with return of confidence in the market the inflows would pick up.

"By some estimates, USD 650 billion in dollar-denominated bank loans to Emerging Market private sector banks need to be refinanced or rolled over in 2009, and that is a steep overhang.

If the refinancing moves smoothly for even a few months, there will be a huge return of confidence and FII will respond favourably," Coxe said.

The BNP Paribas report revealed that the Indian experience shows currency appreciation to be the causal variable and when the Rupee had started appreciating from mid-2002, FII flows had began accelerating a year later from mid-2003.

Further, brokerage firm Reliance Money said in its market strategy report that going forward, higher capital flows coming back led by strong FII buying and more than expected appreciation in the Indian Rupee would be the positive drivers for the market.

"Markets are likely to continue to be governed by the momentum driven by the global news flows, which is predominantly negative with potential earnings downgrades expected in the near medium term," the Reliance Money report said.

In January so far, FIIs sold as much as Rs 3,961.80 crore (nearly one billion dollar. However, they have been buying in debt segment to the tune of Rs 1,045 crore in the month.

FIIs had been net sellers in Indian equities to the extent of USD 13.3 billion in calender year 2008, the first time since 1999. And this outflow was on the back of a record inflow of USD 17.4 billion in 2007.

According to another domestic brokerage Motilal Oswal's report, following the significant outflows by FIIs, their holdings in BSE 500 companies came down to 16.7 per cent in September 2008 from 19.4 per cent in 2005. - ET

Read the full post...

Best and Worst of 2008 for the Indian Stock Markets.

Nothing much fascinating this year for the Indian Stock Markets. In the third week of the year market saw a night mare. Except that we saw many stocks reaching their lifetime high in Jan first and second week. Third week onwards investors started loosing their money as there we two consecutive lower circuits on 21 and 22 on Indian Markets.

Since the peek of some 21K markets fell at 7800 odd and now are at 9K levels. It lost its shine as it looses 60% in not even a year.

Dalal Street turned into Halal Street.

I doubt if any one booked their full profits.

This year we saw both the phases of the stock markets – Bull Market (for 15 days odd) and rest of the year bear phase.

Just don’t forget – “Every thing which has gone up has to come down again”

Best of 2008	Worst of 2008
Many stocks making their life time highs.	Stocks seen making their 52 Week Lows.
Sensex also reached at a crucial level of 21K mark.	Sensex and Nifty have now touched their Oct 2005 lows.
N. Deal was passed.	Fight among govt. for N.Deal. BJP was against and Congress was for it.
Ranbaxy deal	Satyam and Maytas deal called off.
Tata JLR deal	Slump in GDP numbers from 9.1 to 6.5
SunPharma Deal	Inflation peeked at 12% odd.
Inflation started cooling since Nov.	Crude touched all time high of 147.27 $ a barrel.
Crude is now at 4 years low	Worst IIP data were seen.
Few co. posted good results despite of recession in world economy.	Terror attack on Mumbai.
Brack Obama became USA’s youngest President.	Terror attack on various other cities too in India.

There are many more things, but these are the once which I think are of immense importance.

Sectors which Outperformed.

I can say none of them all are in red.

The worst hit sectors.

Reality / Infrastructure.

Metals.

Auto.

Airline.

Stocks which declared good dividend.

Disa India declared 2000% dividend on a face value of Rs. 10

Colgate Palmolive declared 900% on a face value of Re. 1

Best Performing Mutual Funds of the year - Download File

People staying in Mumbai if you want to invest in Mutual Funds pls do contact here.

Happy New Year 2009.

Happy Investing!

Subscribe for free Email Updates - Click here.

Free SMS Updates subscribe - Click here.

Read the full post...

Will markets rally till New Year?

We never needed it more: a Santa Claus rally. The big question is whether it will happen in 2008? Much like the Wall Street, history
Santa and stocks
says Indian stock markets tend to rally from Christmas Eve to the New Year's Day (or the first trading day of the New Year).

FIIs or mutual funds
or big investors may not be bullish but if Santa has his way, investors will have something nice to finish the year, which saw Sensex lose over 50% of its value.

If investors want some hope, they can take heart from the fact that from 2000 onwards the sensex has never given negative returns for this period, which falls within the Yuletide.

Santa Claus rallies are said to happen as people tend to consume more, invest for tax breaks and more importantly, pessimists stay on vacation during this week, say experts.

For the rally to happen in 2008, the start seems to be a little off the track with Sensex losing 240 point on Friday. But people haven't lost hope.

"An encore of 2003, 2004 or even 2006 could see Sensex gain anything between 3% and 6%. The sentiment not withstanding, we never know what markets might throw at us," an institutional head at a local brokerage said.

A rally at this point could be a possibility because downsides from slowdown and lesser profits in third quarter are already there in the prices to a certain extent, he said.

For a 6-7 day window that exists between Christmas Eve and the first trading of the New Year, Santa has made decent stops at the Indian stock markets. - ET

Read the full post...

The Power of Investing in Equity .

Investing in Equities has made many people rich. Warren Buffet today is the richest in the world who is an American investor who has earned a great name and reputation 

and even wealth by investing in shares. His companys share Berkshire Hathaway INC's share trades above 1 Lac $ just immagine.

Did you know an investment of Rs 10,000 /- 26 years back would have been nothing

less than 200 crore plus in Jan 2008.

The company is WIPRO owned by Azim Premji.

Every one wished they or their parents had this share , they would have been crazy

rich. There are few other companies which have made people Millionaire.

Investment Year (Amount Invested) - Company Value As on Jan 2008

1979 (10,000) Cipla 95 Crores

1992 (10,000) Infosys 1.8 Crores

1980 (10,000) Ranbaxy 1.9 Crores

2003 (10,000) Unitech 1 Crore

So you may be thinking What Next ?

Many people think investing is only loosing money. But its Not .

I term Day Trading as loosing money but not investing.

One should have patience and should be able to hold on for long.

Patience pays.

So if you are not investing start investing as these are the best times to buy 

bluechips. 

Some bluechips are Reliance Ind Infra , Unitech , Bharti Airtel , etc.

I have accumilated the above once.

Happy Investing !

Read the full post...

GDP at 7.6 v/s 7.9 as Indian Economy expands at a slowest pace since 2004.

Indian GDP stands at 7.6% v/s 7.9% in last quater.

India’s economy grew at the slowest pace since 2004 last quarter, increasing pressure on the central bank to cut interest rates.

Asia’s third-largest economy expanded 7.6 percent in the three months to Sept. 30 from a year earlier, after a 7.9 percent gain in the previous quarter, the statistics office said in a statement in New Delhi today. The median forecast of 16 economists in a Bloomberg News survey was for 7.2 percent growth.

Governor Duvvuri Subbarao may have to deepen the rate cuts he started last month to support growth in India’s $1.2 trillion economy as the world sinks into recession. Reducing borrowing costs would also shore up investor confidence after terrorist attacks since Nov. 26 killed at least 121 people in Mumbai, the nation’s financial hub.-Blomberg

Read the full post...

Inflation rate drops to 8.84% on cheaper fuel, metals

 The annual Wholesale Price Index-based inflation rose 8.84 per cent for the week ended November 15, marginally down from the previous week’s yearly rise of 8.90 per cent. The latest WPI inflation rate was the lowest reading since May 17 and well below early August’s peak of 12.91 per cent.

The official WPI for ‘All Commodities’ for the latest reported week rose by 0.04 per cent to 235.1 points, up from 235 points for the previous week. The annual rate of inflation, calculated on point-to-point basis, stood at 3.35 per cent during the corresponding week of the previous year.

Fish-Marine cheaper

The Primary Articles Group rose 0.1 per cent as the index for ‘Food Articles’ group rose by 0.1 per cent due to higher prices of moong, rice and bajra (3 per cent each), ragi (2 per cent) and masur, maize and fruits and vegetables (1 per cent each). However, the prices of fish-marine (12 per cent) and gram and tea (2 per cent each) declined.

Soyabean dearer

The index for ‘Non-Food Articles’ group rose marginally due to higher prices of soyabean (11 per cent), gingelly seed and castor seed (2 per cent each) and linseed (1 per cent). However, the prices of raw rubber (4 per cent), cotton seed groundnut seed and raw cotton (2 per cent each) and raw silk (1 per cent) declined.

The fuel, power, light and lubricants group index remained unchanged at its previous week’s level of 353.3 points. The Manufactured Products group rose by 0.05 per cent as the index for the ‘Food Products’ group declined by 0.1 per cent due to lower prices of cotton seed oil (5 per cent), imported edible oil (4 per cent), rice bran oil (3 per cent) and gur (2 per cent).

However, the prices of bran (all kinds) (5 per cent), gingelly oil (4 per cent), sooji (rawa) (2 per cent) and salt and atta (1 per cent each) moved up. The index for the ‘Textiles’ group rose by 1.0 per cent due to higher prices of cotton yarn-cones and hessian and sacking bags (4 per cent each), texturised yarn (2 per cent) and hessian cloth and cotton yarn-hanks (1 per cent each). However, the prices of synthetic yarn (2 per cent) declined.

The index for ‘Rubber and Plastic Products’ group declined by 0.2 per cent due to lower prices of PVC fitting and accessories (12 per cent). The index for ‘Chemicals and Chemical Products’ group rose by 0.3 per cent due to higher prices of acetylene (70 per cent) and oxygen (8 per cent). However, the prices of vitamin liquids (4 per cent) declined.

The index for the ‘Base Metals Alloys and Metal Products’ group declined by 0.6 per cent due to lower prices of ferro silicon (24 per cent), steel ingots (plain carbon) (16 per cent), basic pig iron and foundry pig iron (7 per cent each), zinc (3 per cent), steel sheets, plates and strips (2 per cent) and ms bars and rounds (1 per cent). However, the prices of joist and rolls and other iron steel (3 per cent each) moved up. - TheHinduBusinessLine

Read the full post...

Investor sentiment may take a knock.

Wednesday’s terrorist attack that rocked the financial capital of the country could further dampen investor sentiment already shattered by the credit crisis, say analysts and marketmen.

However, most of them do not expect a sharp fall in key indices.

“There might be a knee-jerk reaction in the market when it opens”, said Mr Manish Sonthalia, Vice-President, Equity Strategy, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd.

Both Bombay Stock Exchange and National Stock Exchange were officially closed on Thursday following the terror attack.

“I don’t see a great impact tomorrow on markets,” said Mr U. K. Sinha, Chairman & Managing Director of UTI AMC. In the past also such developments had only a temporary impact on trading, he said.

Both BSE and NSE said that the expiry in futures and options, and settlement due on Thursday, were postponed to Friday.

The Singapore Nifty Index Futures opened a little lower than the previous close and ended lower by 64 points.

The terror attack as such is not going to impact the market but will have sentimental impact and foreigners may defer their investment plans, said Mr Dinesh Thakkar, CMD of Angel Broking Ltd.

Some analsyts feel that in the event of a market crash, domestic institutions such as LIC might come to the rescue, said the head of research at a broking firm.

On Tuesday, Sensex ended higher by 331.19 points at 9026.72.

Downgrade seen

As foreign tourists were held captive in top hotels, there might be a downgrade on the big and reputed names in the hotel industry, said Ms Anita Gandhi, Head of Institutional Business, Arihant Capital Markets Ltd.

The terror attack is bound to create a panic amongst the foreign investors which in turn could impact foreign direct and institutional investments.

The US traded shares of Indian companies were up on Wednesday. ICICI bank was up by 1.8 per cent, Infosys by 6 per cent, MTNL by 3.1 per cent and Wipro by 3.8 per cent.

Meanwhile, the SEBI board, scheduled to meet tomorrow, is expected to consider, among others, the exit route for regional stock exchanges and guidelines for separate exchanges for small and medium enterprises.

The equity, currency, bonds and money markets were officially closed on Thursday.

Source - TheHinduBusinessLine.

Read the full post...

Indian market outlook and daytrading ideas for 27th Nov.

Shocking terror attact in Indias Financial Capital. Over 80 are Dead and 200 are injured (Sources).

We pray for all the Victims and Cops who lost their life in this incident.

All world markets are trading positive and I expect Indian markets to open positive.

US markets are up over 3% on an average.

Asia is trading green , more over China is up over 8%.

Inflation is to come out and poll expects Inflation to further cool down.

Support for Nifty is at 2550 and resistance for upmove at 2910 and 3200

Day Trading Ideas.

SBI 

Buy above 1115 for targets of 1126 and 1135

Sell below 1098 for targets of 1085 and 1075

LNT

Buy above 757 for targets of 768 and 779

Sell below 742 for targets of 732 and 726

Unitech

Buy above 26.20 for targets of 27.30 and 28.55

Sell below 23.10 nfor targets of 22.50 and 21.90

TCS 

Buy above 530 for targets of 538 and 549

Sell below 515 for targets of 504 and 497

ONGC

Buy above 705 for targets of 715 and 722 

Sell below 697 for targets of 692 and 685

Happy Trading / Investing.

Receive This kind of updates in ur email Id Subscribe - Click here.

Receive SMS updates for free - Click here.

Read the full post...

Hold Tata Chemicals: PINC

PINC Research has maintained its hold rating on Tata Chemicals in its November 25, 2008 research report. "Tata chem. announced successful refinancing of the USD 300 million bridge loan it had taken for funding the GCIP (General Chemicals Industrial Products Inc.) acquisition in Mar’08."

"At the CMP of Rs 138, Tata chem. is trading at a P/E of 4.5x and EV/EBIDTA of 4.3x its FY10 estimates. With slowdown in construction activity and automobile manufacturing, prices of glass are witnessing significant correction. The same would put pressure on soda ash prices, especially at a time when full year contracts are due for renewal in Jan’09 for BMG and GCIP facilities. We have factored in a 15% reduction in soda ash prices across all facilities. The correction in soda ash prices can be more severe than estimated by us. Hence we maintain our ‘HOLD’ recommendation," says PINC's research report.

Read the full post...

Buy Union Bank, target of Rs 194: Angel

Angel Broking has recommended a buy rating Union Bank of India with a target of Rs 194 in its November 21, 2008 research report. "We believe UNBK is amongst the more profitable, efficient and competitive PSU Banks. We have a positive outlook on the bank due to traction in CASA deposit growth driven by large branch expansion plans as well as cost-efficient operations. We expect the Bank to deliver 12% CAGR in Net Profit and 24% RoE over FY2008-10E."

"At Rs 144, the stock is trading at 4.2x FY2010E EPS of Rs 34.3 and 0.9x FY2010E ABV of Rs 161.9. The stock has been trading at a median one-year forward P/ABV multiple of 1.1x since April 2002. We value the stock at 1.2x FY2010E ABV to arrive at a 12-month Target Price of Rs 194, implying an upside of 35%. We recommend a Buy on the stock," says Angel Broking's research report.

Read the full post...

Buy PNB, target of Rs 625: Angel

Angel Broking has recommended a buy rating on (PNB) with a target of Rs 625 in its November 21, 2008 research report. "We believe PNB is amongst the more profitable and competitive PSBs, with relatively moderate Earnings growth and strong RoE prospects. We have a positive outlook on the Bank due to its superior CASA ratio and high core income component in Earnings, tempered by relatively moderate growth momentum. We expect the bank to deliver about 21% RoE over FY2008-10E and maintain high RoEs relative to peers over the longer term as well, underpinning higher valuation multiples."

"At Rs 451, the stock is trading at 4.9x FY2010E EPS of Rs 92.5 and 0.9x FY2010E Adjusted Book Value (ABV) of Rs 480.4. We value the stock at 1.3x FY2010E ABV to arrive at a 12-month Target Price of Rs 625,implying an upside of 39%. We recommend a Buy on the stock," says Angel Broking's research report.

Read the full post...

Buy Bank Of India, target of Rs 317: Angel

Angel Broking mantains a buy on Bank Of India with a price target of 317 Angel Broking has recommended a buy rating on BOI with a target price of Rs 317 in its November 21, 2008 research report. "We are positive on Bank of India (BOI) due to its balanced funding mix, moderate operating costs, efficient capital management and high core fee income. Consistent improvement in operating leverage and relatively higher resilience in NIMs have led to improvement in core RoE. Hence, we value the stock at 1.3x FY2010E ABV (above its median P/ABV of 1.0x since April 2002) to arrive at a 12-month target price of Rs 317. We recommend a Buy on the stock," says Angel's research report. - MC

Read the full post...

Indian market outlook and daytrading ideas for 24th Nov.

US markets had rallied.

Asia has opened mixed.

Europe was down on an avereage of 3%.

Expect markets to have a flat opening.

The support for the Sensex is 8450-8316 and the resistance to the up move is at 9635-10324.

Nifty: (2693) the support for the Nifty is at 2500 and the resistance to the up move is at 2860-3113.

Day trading ideas.

Unitech

Buy above 32.35 for targets of 33.90 & 34.95

Sell below 29.80 for targets of 28.10 & 27.50

NTPC

Buy above 146.45 for targets of 148.90 & 150.25

Sell below 141.10 for targets of 139.50 & 137.50

Axis Bank.

Buy above 405 for targets of 408 & 411

Sell below 398 for targets of 395 & 392

Happy Investing.

Receive This kind of updates in ur email Id Subscribe - Click here.

Receive SMS updates for free - Click here.

Read the full post...

Weekly news letter and Stocks to watch now.

Indian Stock Markets have witnessed a worst hit. Indian markets are now down over 57% from its peak. Its almost at its 3 years low.

Markets need a good breath now. Traders are worried and even Investors.

Recession has covered the whole globe.

No one has been left out. No fundamentals in markets as of now.

When I look at NIFTY charts I see an uptrend to come till 2780 in short term.

Indian markets will be the first to recover says SEBI cheaf CB Bhave.

Stocks you should look out are.

LNT - Plans to add 10,000 staff by 2010 and the stock has good fundamentals so a reason to buy its Support is at 665 and 711 and a resistance for upmove at 791 and 825.

Unitech - This is one of the most beaten out scrip 52 week High of 600 odd and low of 27 odd. Makes sense in buying and booking profits at 40 odd levels.

SBI - Inflation has cooled and if RBI takes some action in reducing the CRR or Repo Rate it will benefit and then makes sense to buy for short term.

ICICI - The same above reason apples and even if you go to see its is one of the most beeten out blue chip after DLF and Hindalco.

Sectors I am bullish on -

Infrastructure and Banking and later Metals.

All of these sectors have witnessed the worst hit ever so chances are there for these sectors to recover very fast.

Happy Investing .

Receive This kind of updates in ur email Id Subscribe - Click here.

Receive SMS updates for free - Click here.

Read the full post...

What happned in Indian Markets this week ?

The Full week was dull almost every day we saw a red stroke or a downtrend but an excellent pulback of 464 points on SENSEX i.e 5.5%. on Friday.

The whole week markets were mainly down because of bad global cues.

Inflation in single digits thats cool.

Crude Oil sliped below 50$ before recovering. Thats also good.

The bad news is worlds second largest economy JAPAN slips in recession.

Germany went in recession last week.

And the same job cuts news continue to rule.

Read the full post...

BNP Paribas maintains ‘buy’ rating on Maruti Suzuki India

Maruti Suzuki India 

CMP: Rs 511.35 

TARGET PRICE: Rs 760

BNP Paribas has maintained a ‘buy’ rating on Maruti Suzuki India even while lowering the target price from the earlier Rs 840 to Rs 760. The foreign broking firm expects the company to regain market share with the launch of A-Star. “We believe the new A-Star will help Maruti regain most of its 230bp market share loss in the compact car segment,” says the report. 

The report also explains that the newly-launched A-Star has “focused on value, with feature-rich offerings and high fuel efficiency, rather than on performance.” The A-Star and the impending launch of the Splash in 1QFY10 will improve Maruti’s position in the A2 segment, where it has a 57% market share but had not launched any new products in the past two years, the report goes on to add.

Read the full post...

ULJK Securities puts ‘buy’ on Bombay Rayon Fashion

Bombay Rayon 
CMP: Rs 154.65 

TARGET PRICE: Rs 263

ULJK Securities has a ‘buy’ rating on Bombay Rayon Fashion as, according to the broking outfit, the company is increasing its production capacity and also has a diversified market presence. “The company has taken steps for expansion in Maharashtra, which include setting up of the garments manufacturing capacity of 100,000 pieces per day and of fabrics capacity of 180 mn mtr/annum,” says the report. 

The company also has a good presence in the US as well as in Europe, it adds. The report also highlights the point that while the company’s garments are sold in the offshore market, its fabrics are sold in the domestic arena. According to the broking firm, at a CMP of Rs 156, the stock discounts at an FY09E EPS of Rs 26.80 by 5.8 times and an FY10E EPS of Rs 43.80 by 3.5 times.

Read the full post...

SEBI finds no manipulation in ICICI stock prices.

Do you remember ICICI banks gtear fall.

It had many huge intraday falls , the one of 25% , who can afford to forget it.

ICICI was angry and approached SEBI for investigation.

The bank had in September sought an investigation by SEBI into its share price movement, alleging that rumours were being spread about the bank to deliberately bring down its stock price. The ICICI scrip had started to tank on news of its exposure to Lehman bonds, and although the bank’s CEO had announced that its fundamentals were sound, the fall was not arrested.

SEBI analysed the trading pattern of the shares of ICICI Bank for the period September 8 to October 10, 2008 when the scrip fell 49.52 per cent, from Rs 720 to Rs 363.65.

“SEBI did not find evidence of manipulative trading in the ICICI Bank shares during the period referred,” said the release.

Read the full post...

PM: global institutions must be representative

India will emerge stronger from the global economic crisis and global institutions must be made more representative of developing nations, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said on Friday.

In speech to a conference, Singh said the world had become more interdependent and the voice of developing nations must be heard in the high councils of global decision-making.

"Global problems require global solutions. This is the most important lesson of the past century for the present century," Singh said.

"But global institutions of governance must be made more inclusive and representative," he said, according to a text of the speech.

Singh took part in a summit in Washington last weekend with leaders of the Group of 20 nations to discuss how to tackle the crisis which has shaken financial markets worldwide, frozen credit markets and pushed some major economies into recession.

He said the G20 meeting was the first time developing nations' voices had been heard with respect in a global forum and said there was agreement that recourse to protectionism was no remedy.

Indian authorities are struggling to shore up growth against the impact of the global financial crisis and have taken a host of steps including sharp rate cuts to fend off damage to the broader economy.

Singh said the world was in a deep crisis but despite an adverse international environment India had the capacity to sustain a growth rate of about 8 percent.

"We will, through the use of fiscal policies, through the use of monetary policies, through the use of public investment, ensure that the shortage of demand coming as it is from the global slowdown is neutralised to the maximum possible extent," he said.

Read the full post...

SEBI has no plans to stop short selling says C.B.Bhave

The Security and exchange bord of India (SEBI) commented that it has no plans to put a ban on short selling.

Many markets have put up an ban on short selling in West but SEBI has no such plans.

It aslo added that SEBI and stock exchanges cannot predict the market situations.

Read the full post...