Stock Idea - Jaiprakash Associates.

Scrip:- Jaiprakash Associates.
BSE Code: - 532532
CMP: - 111
Target: - 140 (3 - 4 months.)

This is one of the badly beaten up stock in this great bear market. this scrip had made a high of 510 this December and now is down almost 80%. Real estates have seen their worst days all thanks to the US sub prime crises.
What I think at the movement this is a good scrip to accumulate for long term view.
This company is engaged in the business of heavy civil engineering construction, expressways, cement and real estate and hospitality.
The performance of the company has been quite good.
One thing to notice is when there is any short covering the sector which is pulled is Banking and Reality.
JP Associates has a strong order book value of various Express highway more over it owns a fully owned subsidiary Himalian Express way.
One must buy this scrip in dips and book profits in sharp rise.
Happy Investing.
Stock Quotes Here.

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Market Outlook and Day trading ideas.

US markets in deep Red. NASDAQ down over 9% Dow down over 7%.
US markets were down as the Bail out plan failed.
We had said about this in our weekly forecast on Sunday.
Asia has also opened in red.
We may have also have a deep red opening of 450 - 500 points.
Be careful.

Day trading ideas for the day : -
RNRL
Buy above 71.70 for targets of 73.75 & 75.70
Sell below 65.80 for targets of 62.80 & 59.80
Siemens
Buy above 413 for targets of 431 & 457.25
Sell below 373 for targets of 350 & 332

Happy Investing.
Stock Quotes Here.

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Market outlook and Intraday Tips for 29th Sept.

Asia has opened higher on an average of 1.5% on the upside.
US markets were trading mixed but Dow ended a higher note.
We may see a gap up opening.
Nifty has a support at 3810 and resistance above 4090.

Stocks to watch are.
Punj Llyod
Buy above 289 for targets of 295 , 302 & 309.50
Sell below 276 for targets of 273 , 270 , 268.90
SBI
Buy above 1454.25 for targets of 1482 & 1531
Sell below 1405 for targets of 1377 @ 1349.90

Happy Investing.
Keep Appropriate SL.
Stock Quotes Here.

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Weekly stock market forecast .

Markets in the past week remained extremely choppy.
Sensex and Nifty down over 6%. IT index was down over 10%.
Inflation data came at 12.14 V/S 12.10. A moderate increase.
Crude Oil trading range bounded at 106$ / Barrel.
Vote on Nuclear deal is to be held this week.
Another US major join hands with LehMan Bros. and AIG would be Washington MF.
If Washington MF doesn't get bail out plan of US Federal we have another major down fall.
Indian markets as seen are dancing on the global puppets.
Not much good news this week.
Banking and IT may see more hard time.
Be aware , Be cautious.
Happy Investing.!

Vinod Jethmalani.

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Stock Idea - Godavari Power and Ispat Ltd.

Scrip: - Godavari Power and Ispat Ltd
CMP: - 143
BSE Code: - 532734
52 week H/L: - 376.50 - 141.00
Market cap: - 401.83

Summary -
Initially it produced only sponge Iron , but then over a period of time it diversified into value added products like billets, HB wires and captive power plant run on waste gases emanated from its own kilns. It commenced with an annual production of 105000 tpa of sponge Iron and since then has increased its capacity five fold to become one of the largest producer of sponge Iron in India. Billet and HB wires are produced through its wholly owned subsidiaries.
Company has signed an MOU with chattisgarh government for an investment of 1570 crores for its expansion plans . Company is into manufacturing of sponge iron , steel billets , ferro alloys , captive power generation , wires rods and now about getting approval for mining is going to be a fully integrated manufacturer of steel . The company is all set to get approval for aridongri mine in chattisgarh .A consortium led by GPIL has been allocated four coal blocks at Nakia and Madanpur in Chhattisgarh with 243 million tonnes of total reserves, of which, GPIL’s share is 63 million tonnes . Complany is planning to increase its power capacity 1000 MW

Key Financials: -
A mere maket cap of 401 crores seems much lesser for the company and GPIL seems strongly undervalued . Company clocked a sales revenue of 950 crores resulting in a n eps of 36.50 rs. Managment is targeting at a sales of 1400 crores for FY09 . At the CMP of Rs 143, the stock is trading at 4.39 its FY09 earnings and 2.7x FY10E EPS of Rs 33.84. If company gets nod for mining further EPS of 25 rs can be added to FY 10 earnings .
Further more adding the value of new investments worth 1570 crores and power expansion plans which is about to happen in next four years . Stock has very bright prospects and will outperform the markets in a big way .

Happy Investing.
Stock Quotes Here.

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Market outlook and intraday tips for 26th Sept.

US markets rallied throughout yesterday.
Inflation numbers which came out yesterday remain unchanged at 12.14% .
Asian markets have opened marginally weak.
We may have a flat opening.
Be cautious at all levels.

Intraday Tips for the day.
Sesa Goa.
Buy above 118.80 for targets of 121.9 & 126.4.
Sell below 113.6 for targets of 110.25 & 106.45
Unitech.
Buy above 120.5 for targets of 123.45 & 126.20
Sell below 117.70 for targets of 114.80 & 112.10 .

Happy Investing.
Stock Quotes Here. ‎

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Market Outlook and day trading ideas for 25th Sept.

US markets had a volatile secession. Market was not getting any particular direction.
So they ended flat. Asia may open positive.
Indian markets may open positive .
Be aware today as Inflation data is suppose to come out which can be a threat to the markets. Markets may give away all its morning gains.
Its advisable not to trade.
Sensitive trading idea for the day.
NTPC
Buy above 179 for targets of 182.15 & 185.25
Sell below 175.25 for targets of 173.40 & 171.45

Yesterday Austral coke up 20% and GMR target achieved too.
Happy Investing.

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Market outlook & Day trading ideas for 24th Sept.

US markets remained extremely volatile.
Berkshire Hathway (Warren Buffets Company) buying 5 billion$ stake in Goldman Sachs.
US markets down 1-1.5% down.
Asia open flat to negative.
Expect the same here.
We will see a flat to negative opening.
Yesterday I gave OnMobiles Report it opened at 450 and went to 522 by 12 noon. Cheers.
Trading ideas for the day

GMR Infra.
Buy above 89.95 for targets of 91.55 , 93.15 ,94.50.
Sell below 88.15 for targets of 86.35 and 84.75.
Austral Coke & Projects.
Buy above 215 for targets of 230 and 242.
Sell below 209 for targets of 199 and 192.
(PS - Keep proper SL)

Happy Investing.
Stock Quotes Here. ‎

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A macro view on "BULL MARKET IN INDIA"

Hello Investors' One Question is running in my mind from last couple of weeks "WHY INDIANS ARE SO OPTIMISTIC ABOUT BULL MARKET IN COMING FUTURE"?? The answer to this question may throw some light on the feelings of Indian man about its market / the future growth on India / the rising Indian economy. Indian economy is no doubt on the growth path and truly it will rise exponentially in future to come. The financial black hole has eaten up some biggest financial firms in USA last week; Lehman Brother, Merrill and AIG (who begs loans for government for its survival) are name to few.

Indians always think of lower-rates and strong earnings and I too. Elsewhere bears are ubiquitous, but behavior has not become ultra-bearish yet.

Two-third of Fund managers in India are outright bullish, some extremely so and many are puzzled as to why the Indian market has fallen at all this year and why foreigners have been the net seller. Now a More Good News comes here that Indian market has outperformed MSCI Asia ex Japan by 25% in last two months, Also Indian domestic equity fund market has enjoyed a huge increase in average monthly inflows of INR 40 billion this year, compared to INR20 billion last year.

IN SUPPORT TO BULL RUN IN COMING FUTURE
Here I am trying to support my views "why I am bullish about India long term growth story" by giving some facts. I might be wrong here so I request you all to please correct me if I say anything not-correct

Now let me give you an interesting overview of psychology about managing money, I hope you will enjoy reading it:
If anybody continues to receive the cash to invest, he/she will hardly feel too bearish and this is double true when you live in a country whose long term growth is tremendously optimistic.
End of tightening cycle Lead by RBI
Maximum numbers of Indians believe that inflation is now close to its peak and is bound to fall in next quarters. Also commodity prices are falling and they are too close to peak out. These two main factors will force RBI to cut the rates within next few months in my opinions. The movie created by RBI in late 2004 is going to over very soon. Further falling in commodity prices lead to higher earnings of companies
Fall in oil prices will load-off some pressure from government's budget. And the main point what I am thinking is that before elections govt will lower the fuel prices and pressure the RBI to cut down the rates for a better political environment.

The US economic condition: Now Indian investor knows to the financial crisis in US lead by credit crunch. I am pleased to see that many know that it will not affect India too much due to its domestic exponential growth. Indian companies are sitting on the mountain of cash they earned in last five and have very low leverage

Strong inflows
Domestic Indian equity MF inflows in 2008 = INR 272 billion
ULIP Inflows grown by 170% this year
In Korea, in-flow has fried up.
In China many recently launched MF funds failed to attract as much investors


The truth that we have to accept is that "investors have reacted to the stock market sell-off and gloomy macro news by hankering down and doing little.

The Main fear-factor
The rise of the dollar against the rupee has almost nullified the fall in Crude Oil price. Dollar has risen from Rs 40 to Rs 46 in just few months and that is nullifying the effect of fall in crude from 150 to 100 USD/bbl. For sharp up move in market, dollar has to settle in some lower range.

Deepak.
The author frequently writes on the blog
Bse Nse Diamonds.

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Stock Idea - OnMobile Global.

OnMobile.
CMP: Rs 450
Target price: Rs 700 (8-9 months)
52 Week H/L: 744.70 - 400.10
Market Cap: 2619.45

Summary: -
OnMobile Global Limited is a provider of mobile value added services and products (MVAS) in India. The Company has a range of applications that are delivered by its customers, who are telecom operators and media companies, to their subscribers. The products of the Company are Network based in-call solutions like caller ringback tones, dynamic voicemail and missed call alert service, Voice-based multi-modal portal which allows subscribers to access informational and entertainment content such as music, sports updates, news, stock and commodity price updates, in multiple languages using speech-based navigation; on-device client software applications; interactive media solutions, such as tele-voting, interactive programming, mobile auditioning and auctions; mobile commerce solutions like ticketing (movie and railway ticketing), utility payments and mobile marketing services, and business support solutions like phone backup and pre-paid and post-paid bill payments.

Key Factors/ Drivers: -
(Data Compiled by Citi Group)
OnMobile Global is India’s largest VAS (value-added services) operator (35% share) in a rapidly growing market [FY08-11 (estimated) CAGR at 51%.

The estimated 36% EPS (earnings per share) CAGR over FY08-11 (estimated), was due to the company’s increasing international presence.

According to the Citi note, the domestic VAS has graduated from being a glorified sub-set of p-to-p SMS to a well-demarcated segment. “The current contribution of the company at 3.4% of wire-less revenues is likely to increase to 6% by FY12E.

Key Positive: -
Mobile sector will see a boom as it is keeping on adding numbers of subscribers on a daily basis.
More over every one need a cell phone.
Strong growth potential.

Key Negative: -
Markets looking volatile so this is the biggest threat to the stock.

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Day trading strategies and ideas for the day 23rd Sept.

US markets cracked badly yesterday at a 4% odd level. Be prepared for gap down opening.
Asian markets will surely follow the American trend.
Even Crude bounced back to 108$ per barrel.
Avoid short selling at any levels.
Nifty has a good support at 4120 ,3980.
Stocks to look are
Buy IFCI at 38.30 for targets of 39.30 , 40.50 , 41.40 and a Stop loss (SL) of 37.20 .

For positional trade buy Marksans Pharma at around 13.70 for 5-7 days for 20% up move.
Yesterday Punj Llyod was in SELL category as it opened at its 2nd target. RNRL targets achieved.
Happy Investing.

Stock Quotes Here.

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Day trading ideas for 22nd Sept.

Markets may have a gap up opening as US markets rallied the second consecutive day.
Trade in small quantity.
BUY RNRL CMP: - 79.75 Buy above 80.20 for targets 81.55 , 83.35 & 85.20 and sell below 78.40 , 77.05 and 75.25.
BUY Punj Llyod CMP: - 311.40 Buy above 306.50 for targets 318 , 325 , 336 and sell below 298 , 287 & 280.

Happy Investing.
Vinod Jethmalani.
Read Disclaimer.

Stock Quotes Here.

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Its a stock market correction save me.

Lately we all have seen the stock markets corrections. Let it be the one in Jan or in March and not to forget the mayhem in the last week. What did this create ? Corrections created a sense of confusion. This confusion may cause a big harm to a nation. Recently a broker committed a suicide.
People invest hard core . Don't only be dependent on stock markets for money, this should be the second source for the people who don't really understand the markets well.
Here are few tips that one needs to do in such a situation.
Do what you think is right.
Stop listening to analysts.
Don't see stock prices every 20 minutes.
Be patient.
Speak to the real time investors.
Understand the market pattern / cycle.
Stop following any kind to tips.
Follow your sole Guru.
Last but not the least "Don't give up"

Happy Investing.

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Market outlook for the day 19th Sept.

We saw an excellent pull back in the Indian markets as well as in Asian markets yesterday.
US markets had seen an extremely choppy section after which they moved up 4 - 4.5% odd.
Dow ended 400 points + and Nasdaq ended 100 odd points +.
Japan has opened positive at 280 points plus.
We may expect a rally. Markets may open with a gap up opening of 350 odd points on SENSEX.
Moreover Inflation data which came out yesterday is at 12.14 V/S 12.10 last week.
Short term relief rally expected.

Happy Investing!!

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Spice Jet - A medium term bet.

Scrip: - Spice Jet.
BSE Code: - 500285
CMP: - 24.95
52 Weeks H/L: - 104.80 - 20.50

The main reason why I am bullish on this scrip is because of falling oil prices. Oil prices have fallen below 100$ level.
More over Spice Jet is introducing new 14 flights in key cities like Delhi , Hyderabad , Chennai , Pune and Coimbatore on a daily basis.
The past week trend is down but it is due to global cues.
Though this is a loss making company with not that good fundamental sound. But entering this stock at 22 Rs level is a good bet to expect a 30 % return in 3-4 months.
So one can play safe in this scrip with a three months view.

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Art is ‘in’ for Investment.

Where earlier art was the preserve of only the artists and art aficionados, today it replaces blue-chip stocks as an invest option. And financial institutions and art galleries in the country have jumped onto the wagon and floated art funds.

While new entrants scope the offerings for investment opportunities, for art lovers’ today buying art is not just about succumbing to a passion it also offers art aficionados the added advantage of future returns, if the need occurs.

In the past few years, art prices have witnessed record jumps, going up to over three times their original price in the last three years. Currently the Indian Art market is growing at an astonishing pace of about 35 per cent per annum. Which not only makes it a promising contender to the stock market, it also has the added fillip of being seen as a more impressive and creative pursuit, with the additional benefit of adorning your living space rather than a vault or bank.

These very same banks, financial institutions and the like who are cashing in on this boom, with art funds and art investment scheme’s to attract corporate houses and individual investors. Oseta Investments Trustee is an art fund started by Osian’s Connoisseurs of Art, Mumbai, with art galleries and salerooms in Mumbai and Delhi. This fund, managed by Osian Auction House, assures a growth of 15 per cent and takes a 30 per cent cut of profits, after a pre-decided investment period.

Other art galleries are also following suit with clearly defined investment periods and promises of assured gains. This rising market is also attracting the interest of financial institutions like Kotak, ING Vysa, Citibank and ICICI Bank.

Source: - indiaartvillage.com

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Is your favourate IT Scrip safe.

Lehman brothers has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy after Barclays and Bank of America abandoned talks to buy the company. Following the news, the IT space felt a fair bit of pressure. With Lehman Brothers filing for bankruptcy and Bank of America taking over Merrill Lynch; the key question would be - do these companies have significant exposure to the Banking, Financial Services and Insurance (BFSI) space and what would be the impact?
Lehman Brothers, which has filed for bankruptcy, seems to have very little outsourcing done as of now and the exposure remains with Wipro and Tata Consultancy Services (TCS). Wipro has given a statement that Lehman Brothers is not such a significant client and they are not worried about it. Extrapolating what Wipro has said, TCS may not see much of the impact.
But one needs to watch out for what happens with Merrill Lynch because Merrill Lynch was a significant client for both Satyam and TCS. The one which is going to suffer from Merrill Lynch’s takeover is going to be Satyam because it was a significant top client for them. Where TCS gains over Satyam is it has in relationship with the acquiring company Bank of America, which gets more outsourced work. Infosys and Bank of America have a very steady relationship. So Infosys maybe one of the gainers.
S Mahalingam, CFO, TCS has said that the company has a very steady-state relationship with both Merrill Lynch and Bank of America. So he is expecting no impact coming from this part of work at least.
HCL Technologies has done a little bit of work for Lehman Brothers but the management has clarified that it is over and they are not going to be impacted by it. EDS does a lot of work for Bank of America globally. So one needs to wait and watch of what kind of shape this takes and whether any work pours down to Mphasis.
When one puts all of this together, there is some loss but given that most of our top five companies have over 40-45% exposure to BFSI space, then mood is worried and concerned right now. Everybody is calling their relationship manager and trying to figure out what is happening officially because normally there is a two-three months' time, by when the impact actually flows down to the offshoring vendors.
Source: - IndiaEarnings

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Market Outlook for the day 16th September.

US markets fell yesterday like hell. Dow is down over 500 points and NASDAQ 3.5% odd.
Nikkkei is down over 545 points.
Indian markets had started improving before that the global sentiments got spoilt due to Lehman Bros the 158 years old US major. The stock was in talk with the Korean bank for a tie up but the plan failed so the stock had an intra day fall of 45% last week from odd 9$ to 4.8% . A day later the stock fell almost 32% odd. at 3.2$. And yesterday it filed a bankruptcy case and the stock almost fell 95% and is now trading in cents some 21 cents.
US government announced to nationalised these two mortgage majors Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac which control over 50% of the US loan mortgage.
So I think we may test new lows until the conditions improve.
We may see heavy selling by Lehman Bros INC's in India.
Avoid shorting at any points.
Use the technique of buying in dips and selling in rallies.
Buy blue chips stocks if you get them cheap.

Markets may open in deep red.
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Weekly stock markets review 15th - 19th Sept.

As the world prepared itself for the Big Bang Theory experiment (designed to re-create what happened immediately after the Original Big Bang), the Indian markets commenced the week gone by with a Big Bang of a different kind following the NSG waiver. Further, helping the bulls was the bailout of all the bond holders of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac by the US Government as market participants perceived this bailout to be indicator of housing led turmoil in the US and global credit markets nearing its end.

Resultantly, the benchmark Indian indices registered gains of 3% each on the first trading day of the week. However, the euphoria was short-lived as concerns over the falling rupee and future loss estimates of Lehman Brothers (the stock lost 55 % of its value in three days and reported third quarter net loss of USD 3.9 billion) led to sharp losses during the mid-week.

Aggravating concerns was India's core infrastructure industries recording sluggish growth of 3.7% during April-July 2008 as compared to 6.6% registered during the corresponding period last year.

Of the major stocks, India’s largest private sector company interms of market capitalization, Reliance Industries dipped to its new 52 week low on the last trading day of the week. Selling pressure was also seen in banking and realty stocks during the week gone by.

Thus, lower inflation figures, falling crude prices and better than expected IIP numbers too failed to provide respite from the overall selling pressure.

For now, though India has achieved an important breakthrough on nuclear trade, the nuclear deal still needs to be ratified by the US Congress before it kicks in. Notably, the US Congress must act before adjourning in late September 2008 for US presidential elections as, in case of any delay the deal could be left to an uncertain fate under a new US administration which would take office next year.

Even though inflation seems to be cooling off, sharp depreciation in the Indian Rupee which has now breached the crucial and psychological level of Rs 45 per dollar mark for the first time in 21 months may fuel inflation which presently remains above RBI’s stated tolerance level. Sharp appreciation of the dollar against most of the currencies can be attributed to the recent bail-out of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac while the depreciation in the domestic currency was also due to a sharp sell off by the FII’s (net sellers to the tune of Rs 30,000 crore in 2008 and major selling witnessed in the past three months).

Nevertheless, the fall in crude prices alongside a depreciating rupee has given some respite in the near term.

However, with declining crude, prices aviation stocks and oil marketing companies could witness some buying interest in the coming week. Better than expected IIP numbers could also lead to some short covering in the capital goods space.

On the global economic front, in the Federal Reserve policy meeting is to be held on Tuesday and the Central bank is expected to hold rates steady at 2%. However, it may commence lowering rates by the end of the year due to the continued economic slowdown. Any such indication can provide a boost to markets across the globe.

It seems evident that there is little conviction amongst market participants against the backdrop of uncertainty. Nevertheless, there is an underlying hope that the worst may now be over and market sell-offs could provide decent investment opportunities for medium to long term investors. However, in the week ahead, signs of recovery could be followed by profit booking making it necessary for traders to be nimble-footed.

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July 08 Industrial Production data.

July 2008 industrial production info was released today and it was good news atleast on that side , July IIP stood at 7.1 Percent compared to 5.4 Percent in June.

>Capital Goods is up 21.9 Percent compared to 12.3 Percent (Year over Year).

>Consumer Goods is up 7.3 Percent compared to 7.1 Percent (Year over Year).

>Consumer Durables Growth is up 11.2 Percent compared to -2.7 Percent (Year over Year).

>Manufacturing Growth stood at 7.5 Percent compared to 8.8 Percent (Year over Year).

>Mining Growth stood at 5 Percent compared to 3.2 Percent (Year over Year).

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Investment in Real Estate. - "Long Term Bet"

With growing foreign investments in the country's real estates long-term prospects of the sector look brighter, HDFC Chairman Deepak Parekh said recently.
“Long-term prospects of commercial real estate market continue to be positive owing to growing opportunities in sectors like healthcare, hospitality, logistics and education” , there is sufficient interest from foreign investors to take part in the country’s real estate market through private equity and foreign direct investment routes, he added.
In Q1 FY’09, about 20% of FDIs were in the housing and real estate sectors, he said, adding that the IPO market may take some time to recover.
Advising buyers not to sit on the fence, Parekh said: “If you find the right house, go ahead and buy it.”
Interest rates over a 15-year period would inevitably move up and down. “So do not overstretch on a loan and maintain a sufficient buffer" says Mr Deepak Parekh.

But Why Real Estate ?
After looking at this choppy session I say real estate play is a much safer bet.
In fact Unitech Ltd became a multibagger by unlocking its lands value. A person with loads of cash can safely park money in Real Estate. I think investing in smaller cities would be beneficial. Cities such as Sutar , Valsad , Nagpur are some of the places in the western region where returns expected can be higher as they are developing and industrialised cities.
This is a total safe bet as you have some thing called property and you can easily lease it out.
A major draw back is not good liquidity in the sector.

PS. My friend invested Rs 10,000 in a real estate last year and today his net worth is in 7 figures.

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Inflation for week ending August 30 at 12.10 percent.

Inflation for the week ended August 30 has come at 12.1% versus 12.34%. Experts feel this is not a comforting number and it will disturb the confidence as the index is simply not coming down. The base effect saves the day on a year on year basis but it shatters expectations that inflation is peaking off. The manufacturing index is the nasty number and is 0.3% higher and is a cause for worry.

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Stock Idea Rcom.

Scrip: - Reliance Comm.
BSE Code: - 532712
Market Cap: - 83643.59
CMP: - 405.25
52 Week H/L: - 844.00 - 381.05

Summary: -
Reliance Communications Limited is an integrated telecommunications service provider. Reliance Communications Limited has established a pan-India, next generation, integrated (wireless and wireline), convergent (voice, data and video) digital network that is capable of supporting services spanning the entire infocomm value chain, covering over 15,000 towns and 400,000 villages. Reliance Communications owns and operates a next-generation Internet protocol (IP)-enabled connectivity infrastructure, comprising over 165,000 kilometers of fiber optic cable systems in India, United States, Europe, Middle East and the Asia Pacific region. The Company has a customer base of 50 million, including over 1.5 million individual overseas retail customers. Its corporate clientele includes 1850 Indian and multinational corporations, and over 250 global carriers. The Company is the flagship company of the Reliance Anil Dhirubhai Ambani Group. In April 2008, it acquired a 90% interest in eWave World Ltd.
Having 50 million customers it is second largest telecom operator behind Bharti Airtel.
It is an excellent company of ADAG group it has good business model among the all other telecommunication company in India co and also is the second highest subscriber in India co provides various services like mobile,fixed/wirless phone/terminal,land line,net connection,,PCO, Etc. The company also owns world best ethernate technology with buyout flag tecl.

The key positive factors: -
1. It will roll out GSM services from December onwards. This will be a major trigger for new growth opportunities. Reliance Communications is the only national operator providing GSM and CDMA services.

2. Telecom story is still intact. New subscriber numbers are still encouraging.

3. It entered into lucrative IT space by announcing Reliance Technology Services- another growth opportunity.

4. Arrival of BIG TV a profitable business "may be."

5. Reliance Communications will list its global arm “Globalcom” as a separate entity.

6. It will list tower business (Reliance Infratel) within a short period of time. Both the above listings will unlock value in this communications giant.

7. Broadband usage will increase in the coming years.

The key Factors to drive this stock will the Reliance Infratel IPO.
Introduction of GSM service will add a plus to it.

Live Charts. - (technicals)

If you wish to add any thing to this stock , fundamentally or technically post it in comments.
I Will appreciate it.

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All on Long Term Investment.

When some one says Long term investment the first thing to come in mind is Patience.
Do you know an investment of Rs. 10,000 in Wipro in 1979 would be worth more than 200 Cr. today. Believe it or not but this is the fact.
So all of you all may be searching for another Wipro. But no one knows which company will be Wipro.

How to analyse the stocks for long term ? - My Six Sigmas.
1. Check the market cap. Select a company preferably in a market cap of 3 figures. Less the market cap the more is the advancement oppurtunities.
2. Look for an upcoming sector. eg . Telecom and Pharma. An example is China Mobile worlds largest mobile company. Every body needs a cell phone. Telecom is sure to rock.
3. Look for resources Example - Land. Look for companies which have good amount of property. As most money made is in Property and Development.
4. Increasing profits in balance sheet on year over year basis. A tip check for PAT.
5. Future Order value. Example LNT is one good stock.
6. Be Confident in your Scrip.

Happy Investing.
Stocks Quotes.
www.indianmoneyplus.com

- Chirag Jethmalani.

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Stock Idea - Areva T&D.

Scrip: - Areva T&D
CMP: - 1624
BSE Code: - 522275
Market Cap: - 7767.26
52 Week H/L: - 3280.00 - 1199.00

Summary: -
Areva T & D India Ltd. is an India-based company engaged in the business of power transmission and distribution. The Company’s products and systems serve to transmit and distribute electricity, as well as operate networks through information management. Areva T & D India Ltd. is present at all stages of the supply power chain, from the generator to the end user, backed by a services portfolio. The Company has a presence in more than 30 countries.

Business: -
Areva has many ‘firsts’ to its credit, thus gaining market leadership in a number of products; The company commissioned India’s first Extra High Voltage substation of 765 kV for NTPC in 2007. It built the largest power generating transformer for Reliance Energy in the same year. It is also a market leader in GIS (Gas Insulated Switchgear) substation. GIS are much more compact as they occupy significantly lesser space compared to AIS (Air Insulted Switchgear). Given the demand for space in the country, the company quickly capitalised on this need especially in urban substations. Areva is also expanding capacities for the high voltage transformers and GIS switchgears to cater to the growing market and retain leadership position.

Expansion: -
Areva plans to double its capacity over the next two years with Rs 700 crore investments in Greenfield projects. The expansion move appears timely as the company, apart from catering to local demand, has also started receiving outsourced orders from its parent.

Key Financials: -
At EPS of 45.25 the company is trading 35(PE) times of its CMP.
PE looks attractive at 35.
With a huge market cap of 7767.26and adding 700 cr. of its expansion will add 10% to the stocks value.

N Deal: -
The company already makes nuclear reactors and rotors. Its parent company is a world leader in conventional nuclear projects. It makes turbines for nuclear power stations. It supplies steam turbines to over 30% of nuke power stations globally.

Key Positive: -
The N Deal I think is one of the best reason for the stock to shoot up.
A dividend paying stock.
Annual profits up 10% and so is the quarterly profit.

Happy Investing.
Check Stock Quote Here.

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Market Outlook and Stocks of the day 8th Sept.

Nuclear deal done and India gets NSG waiver.
Isn't this a good news. I think this is one of the best news. This will lead to a rally in markets. Asian markets have opened strong except China.
SGX NIFTY trading +221 odd points. Expect a huge gap up opening. Hand Sang up 750 odd points.

Stocks to watch for today are.
Areva T&D , LNT , NTPC , Reliance Energy Infra , SEMENS , and other power stocks.
The above stocks will benefit directly and indirectly through this deal.
Areva T&D I think will be the one to look as of now for a short term period. Expect a 25% return in a month or so.
Check Out the Stock Quotes Here.

Happy Investing.

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Nuclear deal done: India gets NSG waiver.

The 45-nation Nuclear Suppliers Group, NSG has approved a US plan to engage in nuclear trade with India.

The approval came after almost three days of meeting in Vienna on Saturday.

National Security Advisor MK Narayanan has confirmed to CNN-IBN that waiver has been clinched in Vienna. Congress has called it a historical moment for India.

Post this waiver, US will take the 123 Agreement to the US Congress; the Congress will be convened in September.

The NSG waiver will allow India civil nuclear trade.

Source : ibnlive

(Ad) Share Market is Still Rocking - Share Khan

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Weekly Analysis 8 th - 12 th Sept.

The week was moderate. Not much of harm done.
Inflation cooling down from couple of weeks. But the poor global cues was the reason behind the colour red.
More over Crude had an intra day fall of over 8$. This was certainly a good news.
Experts predicting crude to trade range bounded.
Inflation is now not a key concern according to major economists.
The key factor to influence the market next week is "THE N DEAL".
Yesterday U.S Markets ended flat to negative. So on Monday it depends on how Asia opens.
Technically speaking NIFTY can see some support at 4200 and 4050 levels.
Inflation will not spoil the markets sentiments until Thursday.

Short term pick.
Buy Rajesh Export for target of Rs 58/- (1 Month)
Rajesh Export was given at Rs 45. CMP - Rs. 49.20

Book profits in Karuturi Global at Rs 28/- call given at Rs 22/- One month back. CMP - Rs 25/-

Happy Investing.

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Moser Baer - My favourate bull in Bear Markets.

Scrip: - Moser Baer Ltd.
CMP: - 110
BSE Code: - 517140
Market Cap: - 1884.09
52 week H /L: - 344.80 - 87.90

Summary: -
Moser Baer India Limited is an India-based company that is principally engaged in the business of manufacture and sale of optical storage media. The Company also has presence in business areas, such as solar energy, entertainment, information technology (IT) peripherals and consumer electronics. In the home entertainment segment, the Company has commenced film production in multiple languages. The Company’s Photovoltaic domain commenced its commercial operations during the fiscal year ended March 31, 2008. In the home entertainment segment, the Company has commenced film production in multiple languages. As of March 31, 2008, it offers home video titles in Hindi, English, Tamil, Telugu, Malayalam, Kannada, Marathi, Gujarati, Bengali and non-film categories. Its products are sold in approximately 80 countries. As of March 31, 2008, it had introduced new products, such as BDR 1X-6X, DVDR 8X Dual Layer, Double sided recordable discs, Diamond CDR and Archival Media.

Key Financial: -
EPS and PE both running negative making no financial sound.
The development will surely change the phase of the company.
This will be seen on the balance sheets of the company.

Development : -
Lots of development happening around. the recent 6.5% stake sale is a good tactic to raise funds.
I feel this will surely benefit. The amount raised would go towards capacity expansion of the firm’s crystalline silicon and thin film solar verticals, largely at its Greater Noida facility. While the crystalline silicon cell manufacturing capacity would go up from 80 mega watt (MW) to 180 MW, thin film capacity would be increased from 40 MW to 120 MW by next year.

The firm plans to spend about $400 million on capex this fiscal, which would be part funded by the amount raised. The PV business had earlier received Rs 400 crore in private equity funding in November 2007. The business reported revenues of $43 million in 2007-08. With the latest round of funding Moser Baer will holds 93.5% stake in the PV subsidiary.

Moser Baer’s thin film PV business comes under PV Technologies India, while the crystalline silicon business is operated by another arm, Moser Baer Photovoltaic Ltd. Though crystalline silicon is more widely used in PV market, Moser Baer is banking more on the thin film technology.

So, its thin film capacity would be ramped up to 600 MW by 2011-12, while crystalline silicon capacity would go up to 200 MW. “Thin film has the potential to capture 15-20% of the global PV market in the next three years. It has lower cost compared to crystalline silicon and efforts are on to increase its efficiency, which is currently lower than crystalline silicon,” said Moser Baer CFO Yogesh Mathur. The solar market has grown from $13 billion in 2005 to an estimated $40 billion this year. It is further expected to grow to $50-70 billion by 2010.

This stock is only for long term Investors.
One can expect good returns in long term.

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Market Out look for today - 5th September.

Yesterday markets had chopsy sesions due to profit booking.
The support for the Sensex is 14765 and the resistance to the up move is at 15572-15835NSE Nifty: (4448) the support for the Nifty is at 4420 and the resistances to the up move is at 4620-4771
More over Us markets are down over 3 % and more.
Asiam markets trading marginally lower.
Crude yet below 110 $ which is a positive sign.
Inflation which came yesterday is at 12.34 v/s 12.40 which is a good news to the markets.
Expect the markets to open red by more than 150 points down.

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Financal Technology is still a star.

Scrip: - Financial Technology.
BSE Code: - 526881
CMP: - 1421.35
Market Cap: - 6,522.36 Cr
52 Week H/L : - 2855.00 - 1340.00

Summary: -
Financial Technology one of the favourate of investors floated by Mr. Jignesh Shah.
Financial technology has many products working in the financial trading markets. . It has products like ODIN, Inet.net, iWin, FXDirect, etc. These cover all stages of trading – pre trade, trade and post trade. These products cater to Exchanges, Brokers, AMCs,, Depositories, Custodians, Banks, etc.
Financial technologies has set up two commodity exchanges Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) and Dubai Gold and Commodity Exchange (DGCX). Over the next few years the commodities market is expected to experience exponential growth and Financial Technologies should be a huge beneficiary.
And Also has Stake in Singapore Mercantile Exchange.

Analysis: -
I am recomending this scrip as MCX IPO is awaiting to enter the markets.

Value of MCX as per Fidelity's entry price:

(50/9*100)*45.5=Rs.25200 million= Rs 2500 crores(approx.)

Share of Financial Tech=64 p.c.

Value of Investment in MCX for Financial Tech=64 p.c. of 2500=1600 crores.

Share Capital of Financial Tech=8.8 crores.

No. of shares=8.8/2=4.4 crores( FV =Rs. 2 per share)

Per share value of investment=1600/4.4=Rs. 363 (approx. close to your figure)

The total value of India’s agri produce is equal to US $ 85 billion. Assuming a multiple of 10 times to the commodities futures market the total size should be to the order of US $ 850 billion. It stands at less then US $b 2 billion today.

Financial: -
At a PE of 6.78 the stock looks attractive and cheep.
Paid a divident of 200% this year on a FV of 2.

" This is a best scrip only for Long Term Investors"

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Markets above 15K mark.

Market is above 15000 points up by more than 550 points after crude fell below 106 dollar a barrel , this is like 4 month low or something for the crude oil.Thanks to hurricane Gustov which did not do much damage to the oil wealth .

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Stock Idea - Larsen & Tubro.

Scrip: - LNT
BSE Code: - 500510
CMP: - 2562
52 Week H/L: -4670.00 - 2100.00
Target: - 2900 ( Before 3 rd Oct.)
Target for long term investors : - 200% returns after Bonus in 2 years.

Summary: -
One of the badly beaten out scrip in the Indian markets is LNT.
For Short term traders this scrip is excellent as record date for bonus is 3rd of Oct.
Technically speaking this scrip shows some positive strength to me.
Bonus will pull up this scrip.

A long term bet: -
It is India’s largest Engineering and Construction giant.
L&T is the best managed company in India – Business Today survey.
Larsen and Toubro will benefit from huge infrastructure investments in India and Gulf regions.
Strong Order book.
L&T will be demerged into Power, IT, Ship building and Railway units along with engineering division. Investors will get very good returns after the demerger.

Verdict: -
All the factors are in favour of LNT so I am not adding Key Positive and Key Negative.

Ratings -
Short term: - 8/10
Medium Term: - 7/10
Long term: - 10/10 and if possible more than this.

Happy Investing.

Comment on my last stock Idea here.

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Stock Idea - Praj Industry.

Scrip: - Praj Industry.
CMP: - 172
BSE Code: - 522205
52 Week H/L: - 273.45 - 100.15
Market Cap: - 3147.01
Target: - 350 (Only for Long term investors - 2 Years view.)

World Economic Forum (WEF) have bought out a list of 200 growth companies out of which 22 companies are from India. These companies generally considered as having potential to change the global economic landscape. Praj Industry stands at 6th in the Indian List.

Summary: -
Pune-based Praj Industries is an engineering company and is the market leader in ethanol technology. It provides turnkey project implementation services to set up ethanol distillation units. The company has developed technologies to produce ethanol from a variety of feedstock such as sugarcane, sweet sorghum, corn etc and is trying to develop a commercially viable method to convert cellulose into ethanol.Besides ethanol - which accounts for over 80% of its revenues - the company also carries out distillation for breweries and plans to enter the bio-diesel space.
Praj has executed projects in over 35 countries. Over the past couple of years, it has taken steps to strengthen its global presence. These include an acquisition in the US and tie-ups with foreign companies in Europe and Brazil. With this, the company has established its presence in key markets across the world.

Key Financials: -
Praj's net profit has witnessed a cumulative annual growth rate (CAGR) of 43.2% over the past 10 years, while its net sales have grown by 27.3%.
At the current market price of Rs 132.10, the scrip is trading at a price-to-earnings multiple (P/E) of 19.8 based on its earnings in the past 12 months, which is nearly half its P/E just a couple of months ago. Considering Praj's current order book, ability to win new orders and investment in research & development, we expect the company to maintain its EBIDTA margins above 20%. For FY09, we expect Praj to report earnings per share (EPS) of Rs 10.1 .

Key Negative: -
The shareholding of the promoters and public has fallen, while institutional holding is on the rise.
Technicals are not in favour.

Key Positive: -
Ethanol and bio-diesel are gaining acceptance worldwide as eco-friendly fuels. Ethanol blending has already become mandatory for petrol in a number of countries, including its largest consumer, the US. The proportion of blending is slated to go up, with governments in the US and India mandating 10% blending over the next 2-4 years.
The company already has an order book of Rs 900 crore, which will be executed over the next 12 months. Praj is gearing up to cater to the fastpaced growth in future by expanding its capabilities. It has increased its manpower and set up its second manufacturing unit at Kandla SEZ. It has also established a full-fledged research centre for bio-fuels to develop new technologies in this field.
Bibliography: -
Quotes From Rediff Money
Information From I Bulls And ET.

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